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   From: "Chris Farnham" <chris.farnham@stratfor.com>
   To: "analysts" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, September 30, 2010 9:10:53 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT - MOLDOVA - Part 3 - Germany, US, Romania, Ukraine

   SOURCE: MD101
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Washington & Chisinau
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Head of Moldovan Lobby in Washington, but lives
   partially in Chisinau & super close to most politicians
   PUBLICATION: yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   GERMANY

   As far as Germany, Germans have a**historica** ties to having former
   villages and pockets of former population in Moldova. Russia kicked them
   out, so there is a strange resentment between Germany and Russia over
   Moldova.  yeah, this is a huge factor in both Moldova and Romania

   But this isna**t a red-line.

   Instead, it is more about how the Moldova solidification will ripple
   through Central Europe. But Germany can contain Russiaa**s move if it gets
   an answer on Transdniestria. This will allow Germany to say to Europe
   a**see, if we work with Russia, then we can accept your ruling there.
   Germanya**s representative on the issue a** Patricia Flor a** told Russia
   that if Moscow could get a resolution between Transdniestria and Moldova
   started then Germany would be more open to Russia controlling the country.
   Germany also said that if Russia could get a resolution started then the
   rest of the EU would see it as a positive step in security assurances to
   Europe.

   I have this feeling as well. I am wondering what he means by "Gets an
   answer"... on what? Just what Russia plans to do in general? Troops
   specifically?

   This basically goes with our initial take that Germany is testing Russia's
   level of commitment and security cooperation. Moldova is not a do or die
   situation for Germany. Germany can survive with Moldova in Russia's hands.
   It has been for the past 20 years anyway.
   UKRAINE, ROMANIA & US

   Ukraine is on board with whatever Russia wants on the Moldova issue,
   moreover it will help Russia with whatever is needed to help consolidate
   the country.

   Romania is simply terrible at influencing the country. Sure it wants to
   hold Moldova from Russia and to its own. But Romania has not done any
   grassroots moves. The US as asked Romania to set up NGOs, media, etca*|.
   it hasna**t. Romania tried after the last election to set up a Moldova
   Fund to invest in the countrya**but it has only given 100 million euros
   thus far a** which is nothing.

   The US has NO ONE interested in the country. Literally, the lobby in
   Washington has no ties in government a** especially Congress, Senate, NSC,
   etc. The only thing is a Moldova desk at State a** which means nothing.
   There is even no USAID to Moldova. Sure MMC gives some money to Moldova,
   but only $262 million.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com