PUBLICATION: No

   ATTRIBUTION: Source in Hezbollah

   SOURCE  Reliability :  B 

   ITEM CREDIBILITY:  3 

   SPECIAL HANDLING: N/A

   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

    
    
   the short story: this Hezbollah source is claiming that Syria intel is
   spreading rumors that nasrallah ordered Mughnyah's assassination because
   of a power struggle he had with him (recall our earlier analyses on how
   nasrallah was getting demoted in hte organization, iran was unhappy with
   him, and figures like Mughniyah, Naim Qasim, etc. have been put in
   charge). THe source denies that these rumors are true.
    
   If the rumors are true, that's interesting, because it would indicate that
   Hez is pretty badly fractured right now. If the rumors aren't true, that's
   still interesting, b/c then what are Syria's intentions? Seems like Syria
   would be very desperate to cover up any involvement in the attack.
    
   from ME1's Hez source:
   My source says Syria has demanded from Hizbullah to interrogate three of
   its top officials, two in its military intelligence apparatus and a key
   security official in the southern suburbs. Hizbullah has categorically
   refused the Syrian demand. Syrian intelligence is already interrogating
   four Palestinian security officers, three of whom are from the PFLP-GC. My
   source believes the Syrians are deliberately trying to shift the focus of
   the investigation in order to reach a dead end. He says their pattern of
   investigation resembles the fake evidence they produced in response to the
   assassination of Rafiq Hariri, when they claimed that a Palestinian
   suicide militant named Abu Adas was responsible for detonating the 1000kg
   explosive device.

   According to my source the Syrians are leading the investigation in a way
   that would suggest a link between Hasan Nasrallah and the assassination of
   Mughniyye. The Syrians are spreading rumors that the IRGC is very angry
   with Hasan Nasrallah and his cliche in Hizbullah for their failures during
   the 2006 summer war. In particular, the Iranians are dismayed with the
   failure of Hizbullah gunners to inflict significant casualties as a result
   of firing more than 4000 rockets against Israel. Hizbullah handling of the
   Iranian provided missiles has caused Israel to lose respect for Iran's
   arsenal of missiles. The firing of the missiles was more like fireworks
   than instruments of death.

   As a result of the summer 2006 war, the Iranians believed that Mughniyye
   and his core in Hizbullah should replace Hasan Nasrallah and his failed
   cliche.  My source categorically denies these rumors as fgroundless.
   According to the rumors circulated by Syrian intelligence, Nasrallah
   decided to eliminate Mughniyye to prevent the IRGC coup against him.