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   From: "Sean Noonan" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   To: "Analyst List" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 4:45:43 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

      Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

     On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a message to
     the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing with its
     campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
     governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

      

     The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
     proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It also
     urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct physical
     pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy Fawkes
     masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or physical world
     activities.[Is this universally or just in Mexico?  The former points to
     problems with LE cracking down on them, the latter specifically to
     cartel retribution]  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic conspirator who was
     involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament in 1605, and who has
     become somewhat of an Anarchist icon in the United Kingdom. The British
     celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each year on Nov. 5, and the day has special
     meaning for the anarchists.  

      

     It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous set
     Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous associate
     who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The Anonymous
     associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign
     called Operation Paperstorm.

      

     The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,
     dubbed a**# OpCartela** is dangerous and noted that the collective would
     be assembling a hand-picked group of known and trusted associates to
     participate in a special task force to execute the operation.[hahahaha,
     this says something about leadership] It asked supporters to use a
     software widget[WC. is this the correct term?] they had developed in
     order to anonymously pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to
     the task force, which will then distribute it. 

      

     With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not
     backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be
     useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous
     and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential implications.

      

     Context

      

     First it issignificant to understand that the physical? geographic?
     epicenter of this event is Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place
     over the past few months in terms of Mexicoa**s cartel wars. The port
     city also serves as a critical transportation hub for the narcotics
     smuggling activities of the Los Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor
     has identified Veracruz as [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
     ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the Los
     Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

      

     One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
     cartela**s push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
     ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
     Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of over
     50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On Oct. 25,
     Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, a**El Bam
     Bam,a** who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that in
     Veracruz at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from both
     the Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

      

     Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective begin
     to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what Anonymous saw
     as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas cartel, they launched
     Operation Paperstorm, in which activists who associated themselves with
     the Anonymous collective distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz
     claiming the state government supports Los Zetas.  They conducted major
     leaflet distributions on Aug. 13, 20, and 29. They also released videos
     to the internet on Aug. 26 and 29, condemning the State of Veracruz.
     (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous video, Los Zetas allegedly kidnapped
     one of the activists involved in Operation Paperstorm.)

      

     Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting the
     stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and their bodies
     hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.  Signs
     left with the bodies signified that Los Zetas had killed the pair
     because they had posted information pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs
     that specialize in reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the
     body of Marisol Macias Casteneda was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo
     Laredo.   Macias who worked for a local newspaper allegedly posted on
     cartel blogs using the nickname a**Laredo Girl.a** A message found with
     her body noted that she was killed by Los Zetas due to her online
     activities.

      

     Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for
     a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against the
     official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was killed by
     Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their attack on the
     Veracruz state website was because of the death of Laredo Girl. [can you
     attempt to explain why they linked it with veracruz?]

      

     It is also important to recognize that some members of Anonymous [again
     I hate referring to Anonymous as one entity] was also unhappy with the
     State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to prosecute two
     individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug.
     25. The false reports alleged that a group of children had been abducted
     from a Veracruz school and the panic caused by the report allegedly
     resulted in some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed
     to the school to check o n their children. The so-called a**twitter
     terroristsa** were initially charged with offenses that could have
     carried a 30-year sentence. Those involved in this campaign from
     Anonymous, which claims absolute freedom of speech on the internet as
     one of its foundational principles, took umbrage with this stiff penalty
     for the Twitter case a** especially because it stood in stark contrast
     with the impunity many cartel figures enjoy in Mexico. 

      

      

     Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous threatened
     Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous activist,
     Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the approaching
     Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
     ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

      

     Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a great
     deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very interesting
     response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast that it is a
     collective of people and not an organization.  As some
     Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
     accounts[does this mean accounts of people in support of the attack?],
     suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a hoax and
     claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other activists suggested
     that the campaign should be suspended. Still other activists became more
     strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign
     continue. Since Anonymous is a collective, activists can pick and choose
     which actions they will participate in. that means in his case that
     those activists who want to refrain from the campaign will and those who
     want to participate will continue it.  [i see how this paragraph fits
     into your analysis the way you have it written, but I think it might go
     better at the front.  You could use the 'anonymous discussion' as a
     trigger, explain it's "collective" qualities and then go into the rest
     of the analysis.  This way I feel much less bad about how we refer to
     'anonymous']

      

     This will to continue was manifested[something is off in the previous
     part of the sentence] on Oct. 29, the personal website of Gustavo
     RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the Mexican state of
     Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from Anonymous Mexico
     stating that Rosario was aZeta.  It was also reflected in the tone of
     the Oct. 31 message. Some activists associated with Anonymous clearly
     feel compelled to continue with the campaign due to the outpouring[WC. 
     Did they really get an outpouring? seemed like they got a lot of
     criticism and also support for going against the cartels] of public
     support they received in the wake of the media coverage. According to
     the Oct 31. Video statement: (did we see specific examples of "public
     support" or are we just going off of the youtube statement CLAIMING that
     they got lots of support?)

      

     a**we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the
     voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the
     side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in
     critical moments like the one they currently live in.a**

      

     We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the
     campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

      

     Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
     better than Star Trek. What's Star Trek?) 

      

     The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
     place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even
     degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them torturing,
     executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They also
     frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them.  As
     demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in September, Los
     Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace
     online activity to people in thephysical world. It is not known if they
     employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts or if they rely on
     sources within the Mexican government a** although the most likely
     answer is probably a little of both.  [what about just old-fashioned
     human intelligence?  Many people discuss blogger identities both online
     and offline, something they could've picked up without network-based
     forensics.  'My brother blogs about...' and on from there.  Or by
     tracing the information the blogger had in the real world, and
     eventually getting back to the blogger]

   Tristan was talking about how the cartels were even kidnapping computer
   science students and forcing them to track anonymous down. Need to check
   with him on specifics though

      

      

     In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
     following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK have
     arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly
     participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of
     activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted against the Turkish
     government for its efforts to establish a national internet filtering
     system. [Need something to make a point here, maybe something like:] 
     The reality is that there is no such thing as anonymity, on the internet
     or otherwise.  Any action leaves some trail, whether digitial or
     physical.  In the same way that hackers from Anonymous develop exploits
     to access confidential information, law enforcement agencies and even
     cartels could get around encryption, examine patterns of activity and
     investigate leads that in the end identify a real person behind a
     computer. 

      

     Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts lightly.
     Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that will damage
     Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this group has
     decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in some sort of
     response. The big question is: do theypossess the capability to
     effectively trace the organizers of the Anonymousaction against them?

      

     One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is intentionally
     amorphous a** it is also as transnational as the internet, and it would
     not be surprising if many of those chosen to participate in the
     operation against Los Zetas are located outside of Mexico in locations
     such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside the immediate reach of Los
     Zetas.(the US is not out of reach, at least not on the border:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111005-mexico-security-memo-defining-cross-border-violence)

      

     But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way.  If
     Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an internet cafe,
     behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads, it will be very
     difficult to prove that they were not  associated with  Anonymous.  As
     Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business.(it
     would certainly be within the cartel's capacity to kill innocents and
     blame anonymous in the attempt to intimidate them into stopping their
     activity)

      

      

     The Big Picture

      

     One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way in
     which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican middle and
     upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal cartels and
     theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in Mexico who are
     fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like
     Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen are being caught in
     a terrible bind. On one hand, they are receiving ever-increasing
     extortion demands from the cartels, while at the same time their
     business revenues are dwindling because people are afraid to go out due
     to the violence associated with those same cartels. This is forcing many
     businessmen[enterprises?] out of business. It is also creating a great
     deal of frustration and resentment.

      

     At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries
     in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice
     heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the
     September blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog del Narco,
     have also exhibited strong signs of fear inspired self-censorship.  
     This means that the legitimate press is not able to be of any real aid
     to the Mexican people.

      

     Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
     well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymousa**
     original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some people to
     begin to talk about

     vigilante groups to fight the cartels a** though that has been attempted
     before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
     ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
     group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

      

     This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely
     on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for
     assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form of
     cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a perceived
     safe way to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If this
     occurs, we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta controlled
     areas providing information to Anonymous, but citizens from all over the
     country.

      

     Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in an
     effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also very
     well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information on Los
     Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more reason for
     Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.

      

     If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
     Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
     releasing sensitive information to the U.S. Drug Enforcement
     Administration in an attempt to damage Los Zetas. This would be an
     incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous has viewed itself as an
     opponent of the U.S. government in cases like Wikileaks. (Anonymous has
     made it clear that the value they provide is a safe and private medium
     through which to pass this damning information. Their stated priority is
     to publicize information that people send to them. But, do they have a
     way to protect their sources? They likely don't have much collective
     experience in source handling. I imagine a lot of the details they get
     could put their sources in serious trouble. If I were a semi-smart
     Mexican who knew some super detailed information on the cartels, I would
     think long and hard before handing it over to these guys. This may be a
     separate piece entirely, but I think we need a discussion on source
     handling and how good hackers don't necessarily make good intelligence
     agents.)

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   STRATFOR

   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967

   www.STRATFOR.com