I don't disagree with you but this is all very new and in flux so it would
   be best if we didn't come out strongly that the AKP has contained the
   military. The TSK is not without cards and they are using them. Last week
   we had a brief on how they are again trying to get a case through the
   judiciary to have the ruling party outlawed on charges of supporting
   Kurdish separatism.  

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of George Friedman
   Sent: February-22-10 8:55 AM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: ANALYSIS FOR QUICK COMMENT- CAT. 3 - TURKEY: AKP fights back

    

   We know that there is tension between the government and the military.  It
   seems to me that the government is having no problem controlling the
   military elements. As this incidence shows the government knows what they
   are doing and arrests them when it feels like them.  Why isn't the
   conclusion here about the weakness of the secular forces and the strength
   of the Islamists.  This seems a very one-sided struggle.

   Emre Dogru wrote:

   with Kamran's approval. the sooner published the better. there is nothing
   about this in international media yet.

   A raid has started early in the morning in the houses and offices of the
   retired Turkish generals and some others were arrested Feb. 22. The reason
   of the recent investigation (which is the biggest against the retired and
   serving military officials so far) is the so-called Balyoz (Sledgehammer)
   plan (LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/sitrep/20100121_turkey_coup_plan_was_part_military_exercise_program)
   that reportedly outlined the plan of the Turkish army in 2003 to intervene
   should anti-secular movements get out of hand. Former 1st Army General
   Cetin Dogan, deputy commander of Turkish Armed Forces Ergin Saygun, navy
   general Ozden Ornek and air forces general Ibrahim Firtina are among those
   who are accused of being involved in army's plots to topple the ruling
   Justice and Development Party (AKP).

   Sledgehammer Plan was revealed in last January. The plan allegedly
   contains actions that the Turkish army was supposed to take in 2003, such
   as bombing a mosque in Istanbul and shutting down a Turkish jet plane over
   the Aegean Sea to blame Greece, in order to create necessary conditions to
   call state of emergency and repeal the government to take over the
   authority. Top commander of the Turkish Army Ilker Basbug, however,
   fiercely condemned those allegations. Former commander of the 1st Army
   Cetin Dogan, who is the main responsible of the plan, defended the
   Sledgehammer Plan as a war exercise and a usual contingency plan.

   There is already an ongoing probe since 2007 against the former soldiers,
   journalists and academicians who are accused of creating an organization
   called Ergenekon to topple the AKP government. Since it's beginning, AKP
   used Ergenekon probe to crack down on military and civilian forces that
   may pose challenge to AKP. Whether the recent Sledgehammer plan will be
   merged with the Ergenekon case remains to be seen. But the fact that some
   of the arrested generals are being sent to Istanbul to be questioned by
   Ergenekon prosecutors supports this possibility.

   The raid comes at a time when the struggle between the Islamist-rooted
   Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Turkey's strictly secular civilian
   and military bureaucracy intensified within the judiciary.(LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/node/154795). AKP government came under pressure
   with the recent spat within the judiciary over the allegations of
   interfering to the independence of judges and prosecutors. However, with
   the investigation and arrest of retired generals over the Sledgehammer
   Plan, AKP shows its ability to stave off such accusations and contain
   army's traditional influence in Turkish politics.

 --

 Emre Dogru

  

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