INSIGHT:
    
   This is not Vershbow's only move. He will be tossing himself back and
   forth for the next few months between Georgia and Ukraine. He will be in
   Georgia October 19-20 and then in Ukraine in early November and Georgia in
   late November and then back again to both in December.
    
   In Georgia, Vershbow will be coordinating an expansion of US training of
   Georgian troops. It will most likely not just be defensive anymore.
    
   In Ukraine, yes, there was the BMD announcement that Kiev did not even
   know about. But the bigger concern is that under certain Western nudging,
   Ukraine will resume weapon transfers to Georgia.
    
   Vershbow's primary focus will now be on Georgia and Ukraine, but we all
   know that there is an expiration date on the Ukraine part of this
   equation.
    
   LG discussion....
    
   What the source means by the expiration date is that Vershbow can actually
   get some cool things done in Ukraine via Yushchenko. The rest of the
   political sphere - Timo, Yanu, parliament, cabinet, etc-all won't work
   with Vershbow. But Yushchenko can.
    
   Though Yushchenko has 2% approval rating, his party is split into half a
   dozen parts and he LITERALLY has no friends.... He does still control 3
   key sectors in Ukraine as President: SBU, military industrial and
   military. Yushchenko can make decisions in those sectors without having to
   consult with anyone else for the most part.
    
   So Vershbow and Yushchenko could  in theory pull off some incredible shit
   in Ukraine and Georgia...... but there is a time limit since Yushchenko
   will be out of office in 3 months.....
    
   The clock is ticking.  
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com