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FM AMEMBASSY RANGOON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9691
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
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RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 2460
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 2368
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RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 1920
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 2388
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 0759
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2796
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 4726
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000820 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, 
PACOM FOR FPA 
TREASURY FOR OASIA, OFAC 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2019 
TAGS:              
SUBJECT: INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF BURMESE LEADERSHIP MEETING IN 
NOVEMBER 2009 
 
REF: RANGOON 806 
 
RANGOON 00000820  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: CDA Larry Dinger for Reasons 1.4 (b and d) 
 
Burma's Generals prepare for 2010 elections; new 
responsibilities 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------- 
 
 1.  (C)  A Burmese businessman well-connected with senior 
leaders in Nay Pyi Taw informed us this week that, during the 
regime's quarterly leadership meeting that took place the 
week of November 23, Burma's generals received their marching 
orders for the period leading up to national elections in 
 2010.  Some generals were so nervous about their prospects in 
the lead-up to the meeting that they sent their families on 
"vacation" abroad.  The businessman reports that, as 
expected, the GOB's mass organization, the Union Solidarity 
and Development Association (USDA), will in effect form one 
or more political parties to compete in the election.  A 
number of senior military officers will take off their 
uniforms to become "civilian" politicians.  Other senior 
military officers will stay in uniform and fill the 
military's 25 percent of the seats in parliament under the 
new constitution.  Other prominent persons, like the 
businessman contact, have received requests from senior 
military officials to run for office in particular 
constituencies.  The businessman reports that he declined two 
such offers "in a very polite way," and thus far has felt no 
repercussions. 
 
Generals intend to use ASSK, but not cede her real power 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
 2. (C)  Reportedly, Than Shwe has decided Aung San Suu Kyi 
(ASSK) can be of use in legitimizing the 2010 election 
effort, thus recent regime authorizations for ASSK to pay 
respects to ailing National League for Democracy (NLD) elders 
(Ref A) and to meet with foreign diplomats like EAP A/S 
Campbell.  The intention is to use ASSK but not, in the end, 
to allow her to gain any real influence.  Reportedly, Vice 
Senior General Maung Aye disagreed with the plan, believing 
there should be no easing of restrictions on ASSK. 
 
Caretaker government, senior conflict: Than Shwe and Maung 
Aye at odds 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------- 
 
 3. (C)  The businessman's senior contacts report that in a 
gathering of the 15 most senior military officers during the 
quarterly meeting, Senior General Than Shwe revealed he 
intends to create a "caretaker government" at some point 
prior to the election.  (Note: Rangoon rumor has spread 
similar accounts, suggesting most current ministers will 
"resign" in order to begin campaigning, leaving governance in 
the hands of a small number of ministers, each overseeing 
several of the current portfolios.)  Than Shwe purportedly 
told the generals that he intends to retain responsibilities 
to oversee the caretaker government through the elections 
before retiring, but that Maung Aye should retire in the near 
term as part of the transition to a new government. 
Reportedly, for the first time any of the assembled generals 
had ever observed, Maung Aye spoke up in direct opposition to 
Than Shwe in front of a group.  He made clear he intends to 
stay actively involved. 
 
RANGOON 00000820  002.4 OF 002 
 
 
 
Lower levels calculating their own odds; #3 sides with Than 
Shwe 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
 4. (C)  The businessman said other generals see the 
confrontation between the top two generals  as the most 
important development of the quarterly meeting, though few 
dare to predict how the now-visible conflict of interests 
between the two most senior generals will play out.  The 
businessman reported that General Thura Shwe Mann, the number 
three leader whom many presume Than Shwe is grooming as his 
replacement, told fellow senior officers that he is totally 
loyal to Than Shwe and intends to protect the Senior 
General's interests far into the future given "all his 
efforts to protect the best interests of the country."  Other 
generals perceived Thura Shwe Mann's comments as placing his 
bet on Than Shwe maintaining control and being able to anoint 
his successor.  When the businessman was asked whom he would 
prefer -- Than Shwe or Maung Aye -- to continue on as leader, 
he instantly responded:  "Than Shwe because" with his several 
health problems "he is more likely to die in the near term!" 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
 5. (C)  While the businessman contact has proven to know Nay 
Pyi Taw insider information in the past, including non-public 
aspects of A/S Campbell's meetings in early November, he is a 
businessman, not a general, so what he knows is second hand 
and we cannot guarantee the accuracy of his report.  We have 
long surmised that the 2010 elections will create "rice bowl" 
issues for a number of senior military officers who have done 
well under the present configuration of authority and who 
face uncertainty about their political and economic futures. 
If, indeed, one of those nervous people is Maung Aye, the 
coming months could be very interesting to observe. 
DINGER