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ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 280909Z AUG 09
FM AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1443
INFO RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 8561
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO PRIORITY 0283
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA PRIORITY 2413
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA PRIORITY 0275
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA PRIORITY 0311
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0466
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 1169
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 0086
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 0056
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 0033
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0227 UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 OSAKA KOBE 000135 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS:    
SUBJECT: Of Madonnas and Manifestos: Kansai Braces for 
Historic DPJ Win 
 
REF: TOKYO 1978 
 
 1. (SBU) Summary: Voters in western Japan are poised to 
hand a historic victory to the Democratic Party of Japan 
(DPJ) in legislative elections, tracking developments 
nationwide in a race highlighted by negative campaigning by 
the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), a debate 
dominated by issues of economic security, and a stark 
contrast between the profiles of the two parties' 
candidates. Burnishing its credentials as the party of 
change, the DPJ has fielded a younger slate of candidates 
in which women make up one in five first-time challengers. 
While the LDP has grumbled about biased media coverage, 
their candidates may survive in some conservative districts 
as long-time supporters choose to split their votes between 
the DPJ and LDP in the single-seat and proportional races. 
End summary. 
 
LDP Goes Negative 
----------------- 
 
 2. (SBU) In the weeks leading up to the election, every 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito official with 
whom we spoke consistently repeated the mantra that the 
ruling coalition would not go negative because negative 
campaigning rubbed most Japanese voters the wrong way. 
With a week before the election and trailing in the polls, 
Hyogo LDP incumbent Shigeo Omae had a change of heart.  On 
August 24, Mr. Omae's supporters were distributing 
pamphlets headlined, "DPJ = Nikkyoso", equating the 
opposition party with the leftist teachers' union, whose 
members occasionally make the news for refusing to sing the 
national anthem or failing to salute the flag.  "We Can't 
Put Japan in Their Hands," reads the cover, showing a 
picture from an LDP rally with the Japanese flag displayed 
prominently above the stage, implicitly contrasting it with 
a shot from a flag-free DPJ event.  The rest of the 
pamphlet describes changes to the national curriculum that 
Omae contends the DPJ is planning to implement, including 
"graphic sex education."  Next to picture of a pair of 
anatomically correct dolls is the caption, "To advance its 
agenda of 'sexual self-determination,' Nikkyoso is trying 
to expose our children to graphic sexual education from an 
early age, teaching them how to use condoms, showing them 
videos of childbirth, even demonstrating sexual relations 
and childbirth with anatomically correct dolls." 
 
LDP: We're Misunderstood - and It's the Media's Fault 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
 3. (SBU) The secretary of the LDP Osaka Chapter insisted to 
us that the party has been unfairly portrayed by the media. 
"The media is playing up all this business about 'change,'" 
he sighed. "As far as substance goes, there's not much to 
the DPJ manifesto."  He characterized the DPJ's momentum as 
a media-facilitated phenomenon, noting that news favorable 
to the ruling coalition, such as Komeito's increasing their 
seats from 22 to 23 in the Tokyo metropolitan election last 
month, went largely unreported. 
 
 4. (SBU) Still, for the LDP, the only way forward is to 
out-DPJ the DPJ in terms of offering measures to revive the 
economy and "guarantee livelihoods," the LDP official said. 
The LDP is encouraging its candidates to emulate their DPJ 
rivals and "go back to the streets" to canvass neighborhood 
by neighborhood, speaking to voters whenever and wherever 
opportunities arise.  The LDP's late attempt to shift 
tactics has been somewhat frustrated, he admitted, by the 
party's aging campaign organizations, long accustomed to 
running top-down campaigns targeting business leaders for 
support. 
 
 5. (SBU) Surprisingly, in addition to blaming the media, 
the LDP official singled out both former LDP Prime Minister 
Koizumi and the bureaucracy for criticism.  He placed the 
blame for a widening gap between rich and poor on Koizumi's 
decision to step down before his reform program was fully 
implemented.  He also blamed local bureaucrats for the 
public relations disaster over lost pension records: "Of 
 
OSAKA KOBE 00000135  002 OF 003 
 
 
course we couldn't say it, but it's their fault. They 
resisted computerization for years to pad jobs."  Pausing 
to reflect on the last election in 2005, he said that it 
went too well for the LDP.  "It was a bubble.  We managed 
to get 83 inexperienced candidates elected" -- the Koizumi 
kids -- "and now the bubble has burst." 
 
DPJ:  "Change" Platform a Vote-Winner, but How to Rule? 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
 6. (SBU) At the DPJ Osaka chapter headquarters elation over 
the prospect of a historic victory was tempered with 
caution over the responsibility that comes with winning. 
Reflecting on the extent of voters' malaise, one DPJ 
official gave us his view that this election is about the 
desire for "stable livelihoods."  "It's about young people 
not having to work one dead-end job after another.  It's 
about old people not worrying if they can survive on their 
pensions. It's about parents getting the support they need 
to raise families." 
 
 7. (SBU) While DPJ Osaka chapter officials are optimistic 
that the voters' current mood seems to favor the DPJ 
challengers over incumbents and youth over experience, they 
are well aware that those same voters may not exhibit much 
patience once the DPJ take over the levers of power, and 
the clock will be ticking because the Upper House election 
is just a year away. 
 
Female Candidates Step Forward 
------------------------------ 
 
 8. (SBU) The media has regularly highlighted the "large 
number" of women running on the DPJ ticket, paying 
particular attention to races featuring telegenic DPJ 
female challengers trying to unseat crusty male LDP 
incumbents.  Some high-profile examples are in Ehime, where 
TV anchorwoman Takako Nagae (49) is challenging incumbent 
and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki (58), 
and in Kyoto, where Mai Ohara (35), a former Self-Defense 
Forces servicewoman turned beauty queen and non-profit 
volunteer, is challenging ex-Finance Minister Sadakazu 
Tanigaki (64). 
 
 9. (SBU) Despite the media focus on the DPJ's large number 
of so-called "Madonna candidates," only 46 of the DPJ's 330 
candidates, or 14 percent, are women.  The comparable 
figure for the LDP is eight percent.  Still, the popular 
perception among voters that the DPJ reflects "change" has 
been enhanced by the higher percentage of DPJ female 
candidates, as well as by the fact that women account for 
20 percent of the DPJ's first-time candidates (32 of 164) 
and that the average age of DPJ candidates is 49.3 versus 
55.5 for the LDP. 
 
DPJ Courts LDP's Military Constituency 
-------------------------------------- 
 
 10. (SBU) Although the Japan Self-Defense Forces carefully 
observe political neutrality, the estimated one million 
votes of SDF personnel and their family members have 
traditionally gone to the LDP.  A media contact in Kyoto 
told us that DPJ candidates are multiplying their 
appearances at SDF events in Kansai, such as port calls by 
Maritime SDF vessels in Maizuru, Kyoto District 5.  MSDF 
personnel and their families account for 10 percent of the 
population in Maizuru, and our contact told us that the LDP 
is nervous that the DPJ is making inroads into what has 
been a key constituency there. DPJ candidates have also 
been seen with greater regularity at other base cities in 
Kyoto Prefecture, our contact reports. 
 
LDP Still Rules Local Government - For Now 
------------------------------------------ 
 
 11. (SBU) Whatever happens on August 30, the LDP will still 
control local government in many conservative bastions like 
Shikoku. In Kagawa, a DPJ official moaned that his party 
has just three of 45 seats in the prefectural assembly. He 
 
OSAKA KOBE 00000135  003 OF 003 
 
 
said that local LDP lawmakers and their supporters had long 
made life difficult for the DPJ - for example, branches of 
the Japanese agricultural cooperative, Nokyo, refused to 
rent out their facilities for DPJ rallies. Some predict, 
however, that a DPJ victory on August 30 will have a knock- 
on effect in prefectural elections and will lead to more 
town mayors seeking endorsements from the DPJ. 
 
Decentralization Proponents Favor DPJ 
------------------------------------- 
 
 12. (SBU) In August, Osaka's popular Governor Toru 
Hashimoto and a group of local-government allies endorsed 
the DPJ, provoking cries of betrayal from LDP officials who 
had helped elect Hashimoto.  Hashimoto and Yokohama Mayor 
Hiroshi Tanaka made the endorsement on behalf of the Shucho 
Rengo, a group of five local leaders who have joined forces 
to push Hashimoto's decentralization agenda.  Hashimoto not 
only gave the DPJ higher marks for the decentralization 
planks in its manifesto, but he also praised the DPJ for 
"moving to change the fabric of the country by harnessing 
the energy of a change of government."  The LDP's Osaka 
chapter, which along with Komeito helped Hashimoto become 
Japan's youngest governor in January 2008, exploded with 
anger at the news, with LDP Osaka chapter head Taro 
Nakayama saying he "boiled with rage" at Hashimoto's 
betrayal. 
 
Kansai Komeito Incumbents Likely Safe, but What Next? 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
 13. (SBU) Komeito is a force in Osaka and Hyogo, holding 
four of the 19 single-seat districts in Osaka and two of 
the 12 in Hyogo, but heading into the election, local 
officials seem resigned to the prospect of going into 
opposition. The policy director at Komeito's Osaka chapter 
told us philosophically, "We're not afraid of being in the 
opposition.  We were in the opposition for 30 years before 
joining the coalition. But it's going to be terrible for 
the LDP."  Komeito is counting on its members' trademark 
zeal to stay afloat even as the LDP founders. Despite the 
success of all 23 Komeito candidates who ran in the Tokyo 
Metropolitan Assembly race, the Osaka policy director noted 
that the party's candidates in Tokyo finished lower in 
their multiple-seat districts than last time around.  In 
Kansai, Komeito believes it can hold onto its four seats in 
Osaka and two seats in Hyogo by attacking the "extreme" and 
fiscally irresponsible promises made in the DPJ's manifesto. 
 
Schizophrenic Voters: DPJ? Yes. LDP? Yes Again 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
 14. (SBU) Voters in traditional LDP strongholds seem poised 
to re-elect LDP incumbents in some single-seat districts 
even while voting for the DPJ in the proportional race. 
The DPJ, which is fielding candidates in 11 of the 13 
single-seat districts in conservative Shikoku, will likely 
win several of those races outright, but all 11 of its 
candidates may well end up getting elected thanks to a 
strong DPJ showing in the proportional contest. 
 
 15. (SBU) In Ehime, the head of the DPJ's prefectural 
federation told us that although voters in Ehime were as 
fed up as the rest of the country, he expected their 
frustration to translate largely into votes for the DPJ as 
a party in the proportional election, with many of those 
same voters still ticking the box next to the name of the 
LDP candidate to whom they have long been bound by ties of 
patronage and loyalty.  "They'll vote for the DPJ with 
their left hand and the LDP with their right," he said. 
 
HILLON