P 311604Z AUG 09
FM AMCONSUL LEIPZIG
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0164
INFO FRG COLLECTIVE
AMCONSUL LEIPZIG UNCLAS LEIPZIG 000026 
 
 
FOR EUR/CE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS:    
SUBJECT: SPD POSITIONED AS KINGMAKER IN THURINGIA COALITION DILEMMA 
 
REF: LEIPZIG 25 
 
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Summary 
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 1. (SBU) The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) suffered a severe 
blow in the Thuringia state elections August 30, losing its 
absolute majority.  This has been interpreted as a setback on 
the national level as well, since the CDU came up short of being 
able to form a coalition with its preferred partner, the Free 
Democratic Party (FDP), before the September 27 Bundestag 
elections.  The Social Democratic Party (SPD) won 18.5 percent 
and will be the "kingmaker" in coalition negotiations; 
currently, party leadership is weighing possible coalition 
options with both the CDU and the Left Party, which came in 
second with 27.4 percent of the vote.  Both choices present 
political conundrums:  The SPD campaigned against 
Minister-President (MP) Dieter Althaus's CDU personally, but now 
SPD lead candidate Christoph Matschie is not ruling out a 
coalition with that party.  At the same time, the SPD has 
rejected serving in a coalition where the Left Party provides 
the minister-president, something the Left Party as the stronger 
party would have the right to do.  Formation of a new coalition 
before the national elections does not appear likely since it 
could provide political fodder for the CDU.  End Summary. 
 
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Thuringia: CDU Loses Ground 
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 2. (U) State elections on August 30th brought unhappy results 
for MP Dieter Althaus's CDU, which, with 31.8 percent of the 
votes lost 11.8 percent compared with elections in 2004 and came 
up short of being able to form a coalition with the FDP, its 
preferred partner.  The CDU had polled in the 40's until two 
weeks before the elections.  It appears that an unpopular stance 
on tax reform and the failure of Magna to take over Opel may 
have swayed voters away from the CDU. The continuing 
repercussions of a January 1st ski accident which resulted in 
Althaus being convicted  of manslaughter, also took their toll 
on election day. 
 
 3. (U) The Left Party ran a close second with 27.4 percent of 
the vote (+ 1.3 percent).  The SPD won 18.5 percent (+ 4 
percent), the FDP 7.6 percent (+ 4), and the Greens 6.2 percent 
(+ 1.7).  The right-wing extremist National Democratic Party 
(NPD) received 4.3 percent, missing the 5 percent threshold 
necessary for entry into the state parliament. 
 
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The SPD Holds the Key 
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 4. (SBU) The SPD must now decide whether to turn to a coalition 
with Thuringia's weakened CDU, or to enter into a coalition with 
the Left Party.  Both constellations could be problematic for 
the SPD; the SPD campaigned on the need for change, including 
throwing Althaus out of office, and could appear weakened if it 
now enters a partnership with the CDU.  Trying to enter a 
coalition with the stronger Left Party could also present 
problems since the Left Party could insist on taking the 
Minister-President's office -- something the SPD said would be 
unacceptable.  The Left Party MP candidate Bodo Ramelow told 
Berlin and Leipzig Poloffs August 27 that he would not enter 
into a coalition where Matschie is MP, but left open whether he 
would insist himself on becoming MP.  The Left Party has 
indicated that the SPD should push aside Matschie in favor of 
another lead candidate (reftel). 
 
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Comment 
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 5. (SBU) Although election results are in, which way Thuringia 
turns politically is still open and is likely to remain so until 
after the national elections.  The SPD appears split on which 
direction to turn to form a coalition, to the left or to the 
right.  In Thuringia, contacts told us they believe the party 
will postpone a decision on entering a coalition until after the 
national elections.  Forming a coalition with the Left Party in 
Thuringia prior to national elections could damage the national 
SPD prior to the September 27 elections.  It would allow the 
national CDU to argue that this is a sign of things to come -- 
that the national SPD lacks credibility in maintaining it will 
not form a coalition with The Left on the national level.  Many 
attribute the national SPD's current weakened state to the 
Hessen state SPD's flirtation with the Left Party last year. 
The Thuringia SPD may be in a no-win situation since, according 
to Thuringia SPD state party manager, its membership is divided 
between those who favor forming a coalition with the Left Party 
and those who favor a coalition with the CDU.  Either way, it is 
bound to alienate part of its membership.  End Summary. 
 
 6.  (U) This message was coordinated with U.S. Embassy Berlin. 
 
BRUCKERK