VZCZCXRO3783
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDK #0290/01 0680942
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 090942Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2013
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAKAR 000290
SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE AND INR/AA
PARIS AND LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2019
TAGS:
SUBJECT: SENEGAL'S KARIM WADE - THE HEIR APPARENT?
REF: A. A) DAKAR 109
B. B) 08 DAKAR 825
Classified By: DCM JAY T. SMITH FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)
1. (C) SUMMARY: With local elections less than three weeks
away, the country has entered a period of intense
campaigning. One of the key battles will be in Dakar, where
President Abdoulaye Wade has finally made a move to slip his
son Karim into the political arena by including him on his
party's list to position him to capture the office of Mayor
of Dakar. To many, Karim is the archetypal eminence grise
with overarching control over much of Senegal's political and
economic life. End Summary
2. (C) With a budget close to (CFA) 35 billion (USD 70
million), Dakar is by far the largest municipality in Senegal
and thus a potential springboard for any ambitious
politician. The current mayor of Dakar, Pape Diop, heads the
ruling Democratic Party of Senegal's (PDS) list for the city,
but it is widely expected that should the PDS be victorious
he will step aside in order to allow Karim to take the job.
In Senegal's complicated hybrid plurality-wins/proportional
representation system, it is the municipal council, made up
of a city's district mayors (19 in the case of Dakar) and
their deputies plus the winning list of the election for the
city itself that will get together after the elections to
vote for the Mayor of Dakar. Depending on how the PDS fares
in the districts, Karim may yet have an uphill battle even
if, as is widely expected, the PDS wins in Dakar proper.
3. (C) To most observers, Karim's entry into the political
arena is no surprise. Speculation had been rife as to how
his father would present him to the Senegalese people. That
being said, his entry was done with very little fanfare and
his placement of fourth on the list is an acknowledgement
that he does not carry much weight in terms of votes.
However, even though his placement on the list is "low key,"
if elected, Karim will be eligible to be selected as the
Mayor of Dakar. Karim could draw upon the credibility of
being Mayor to also run or perhaps be appointed to the
National Assembly, to a cabinet position, or even as
president of the Senate (which would make him the
Constitutional successor in the event that President Wade
dies in office or steps down prematurely). This, according
to some commentators, would make it easier for the President
to manage the succession.
4. (C) The Senegalese people are strongly divided over
whether or not Karim could win a presidential election in
2012 or sooner. Many believe that Karim would be
unacceptable for not being "Senegalese8 enough (given that
he is half French, spent much of his life out of Senegal and
is not a Wolof speaker); others have indicated a general
distaste for hereditary leadership. When asked about the
prospects of a Karim presidency, most Senegalese scoff at the
idea, saying, "it can't happen, the people won't accept
this." However, others note that Senegalese elections are
largely about money, that broad constituencies can be "bought
off" through patronage or directives by leading marabouts
(Muslim religious leaders). In this regard, Karim is
certainly well positioned to wield political influence,
Senegalese style.
Who is Karim?
-------------
5. (C) For the most part Karim Wade is an enigmatic figure,
who has so far let others do much of the talking for him in
public. He is rarely seen in public, and when he is it is
usually with his father. He has done very few press events.
Karim's first major foray out of the shadows was when he was
placed in charge of the Agence National Pour l'Organization
de la Conference Islamique (ANOCI), the agency that was
tasked with organization of the March 2008 Organization of
the Islamic Conference (OIC) summit in Dakar. He oversaw the
construction of a number of high profile infrastructure
projects and he was also the President's envoy/courier to the
Middle East. The amount of money that was spent for the
summit remains as yet unknown but it is widely believed that
Karim has embezzled a significant amount of funds. In the
diplomatic community, Karim is now known as Mr. Fifteen
Percent (up from Mr. Ten Percent when Poloff arrived at post
in early 2007).
6. (C) His role within his father's entourage as a Special
Economic Advisor remains nebulous, but he is widely
considered to be the President's top advisor and strategist.
Up until his inclusion in the list for the Mayor's job, Karim
purposefully kept a low profile in order to avoid competing
DAKAR 00000290 002 OF 003
with his father. It is strongly rumored that his mother,
Vivianne Wade, is the major force behind his candidacy and
that President Wade only recently came around to the idea
that his son might take his place. During the early part of
his presidency, the leading candidate to succeeded Wade was
his political protg and "spiritual son" Idrissa Seck, the
former presidential chief of staff and prime minister. After
an extended spell in the political wilderness following his
unceremonious fall from grace, Seck is now back in the PDS
after having negotiated some sort of reconciliation with the
President (Ref B). Many observers believe that President
Wade wants his son to succeed him in order to protect his
legacy and also his family from possible allegations of
corruption.
7. (C) The organization of the OIC summit revealed Karim to
be a micromanager as he not only took charge of
infrastructure related to the conference but also ran the
diplomatic relations linked to the conference, even going as
far as picking the color of the badges that each attendee was
to wear. On the day of the opening of the summit, Karim was
seen by one his deputies, a close embassy contact, cleaning
dust off the tables where key guests were to sit. This same
contact added, "Karim does not trust the civil servants of
the Senegalese Government, which is why he has set up his own
parallel structure at ANOCI. He is a cold-blooded person.
He smiles when you get him angry and then he settles his
scores. Karim is too goal-driven. His father has the human
touch and this is something that the Senegalese people like."
8. (C) The OIC was also a key link to Karim's role as point
man for Senegal's relations with the Arab world. As reported
in Ref A, Karim is reportedly a close friend of the King of
Morocco, and it is through the King's personal introduction
to dignitaries from the Gulf States that Karim has been able
to negotiate huge investment deals and financial support for
Senegal -- and greatly profit personally. These deals
include the proposed USD 800 million Special Economic Zone to
be built and run by Dubai's Jafza International. President
and son Wade reportedly placed a very large sum of money
donated by Arab countries for the OIC summit into private
accounts to be used as a political slush fund.
9. (C) Karim also effectively parlays contacts from his days
as an investment banker with UBS Warburgh in Paris and
London. Most major projects in Senegal are handled by
financial advisors close to Karim - Morocco's BMCE Capital
(commonly referred to as "Karim's Bank"), and Rothschild's
Bank of London ("Karim's special bank"). BMCE is in charge
of the new airport, the toll road, the sale of the President
Meridien Hotel, and many other projects. Rothschild's is
implicated in a backroom scheme to sell the government's
shares of Sonatel Stock and other non-transparent deals.
10. (C) By all accounts, Karim's Wolof is poor and he is much
more comfortable speaking in French. A former Minister of
Culture, Ahmed Tidiane Wone, who is advising him, told the
Embassy that prior to a speech in a populous neighborhood of
Dakar, he told him to say in Wolof "I apologize because my
Wolof is not hot" before continuing in French. Wone said
that this had a great effect as people laughed, commenting
that his Wolof was not so bad. Karim has also been making
sure to court the country's religious leaders. He recently
offered large quantities of prayer mats and sound systems to
dozens of mosques in poor areas across the country. More
importantly and most symbolically, Karim accompanied his
father to Touba where he was officially presented to the
Khalife-General of the Mouride brotherhood, Serigne Bara
Mbacke. During this presentation, Wade told the Khalife,
"Karim is clean and honest. He left everything in Europe to
come here in order to support my campaign, even though he had
many business dealings in Europe. He gives me great
satisfaction and is among one of my closest confidantes, a
man to whom I can confide everything."
Generation du Concret
---------------------
11. (C) Likely in anticipation of future political ambitions,
Karim, with Wade the father's support, created a new
political group, The Generation of Concrete (GC), even as he
maintained a low political profile. GC was created to
mobilize young Senegalese to act as foot soldiers for the
PDS. The GC has also proven an effective and complementary
vehicle to ANOCI to help Karim maintain huge influence over
infrastructure and special projects in Senegal. The ANOCI,
though originally designed to be disbanded at the end of
2008, shows no signs of disappearing. In fact, there are
credible reports that ANOCI continues to undercut ministries
and national agencies for money and influence. Habib Mbaye,
DAKAR 00000290 003.4 OF 003
Minister-Counselor at the Presidency and Financial Advisor to
President Wade, and a childhood friend of Karim's, admitted
last year what most people in Dakar believe -- no significant
business deal takes place without Karim's participation.
12. (C) For these elections the GC is taking a backseat to
the PDS proper, "Look if they want to run in these elections
they are welcome to, but they need to wait their turn like
everybody else. I'm sure they will contribute something, but
they will do so under the aegis of the PDS. There is no
question of supplanting the PDS with the GC," said Abdou
Fall, who is the 2nd Vice-President at the National Assembly
and close confident of the President. This was confirmed by
Valdiodio Diouf, a close confident of Karim's, "We're not
going to make a big deal about where our candidates have been
placed on the lists; they will win anyway. We don't want to
make this election about Karim and the GC. If we put Karim
at the top of the list, then the whole dynamic of the race in
Dakar changes. We'll keep a low profile for now."
13. (C) But tensions are clearly high between PDS stalwarts
and GC upstarts, many of whom are young professionals who
returned to Senegal from the United States or Europe. "Don't
be fooled," says political science professor, Mamadou Camara,
"as far as Wade is concerned, this election is about the PDS
and the GC. This is why they won't be postponed. When he
told his party's governing bureau that whoever loses needed
to resign from the party, he was serious. In this way he can
ease out some anti-Karim forces within the PDS by using their
electoral defeat as an excuse. The GC is growing, but doing
so quietly. Commissions have been set up on key issues and
they are being led by some big fish that for the moment
prefer to keep a low profile. The GC will be presented as a
fully formed entity when the time is right."
Entourage
---------
14. (C) In his role as a Special Adviser to his father Karim
has maneuvered some allies into key positions. These include
the Minister of Energy, Samuel Sarr; the Minister of Justice,
Mandicke Niang; the Minister of Labor, Innocence NTap; the
Minister of Youth, Mamdou Lamine Keita; the Minister of
Agriculture, Amath Sall; and the Minister of Family, Awa
Ndiaye. Another key ally is Abdoulaye Balde who is currently
the Secretary-General of the Presidency. Balde is at the
same time the Director-General of ANOCI and is running to be
Mayor of Ziguinchor. Aminata Niane, a Minister-Counselor and
head of APIX, Senegal's investment promotion agency (and
implementer of President Wade's "Grand Projects"), is another
key ally.
Comment
-------
15. (C) Karim Wade is a master at being concurrently out of
the spotlight and ever-present. Ministers are scared of him,
business people are cowed by him, and major policy decisions
are vetted by him. He is, by all accounts, charming and
smart, and he tells donors what they want to hear. But, his
influence is pervasive, and, in our view, largely
insalubrious. After the elections are over, and assuming
Wade fils is successful, it should then become more readily
discernable as to whether Wade pere is indeed plotting a
scheme to ensure that Karim succeeds him. End Comment.
BERNICAT
