VZCZCXRO7860
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSL #0031 0151528
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 151528Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2240
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC UNCLAS BRATISLAVA 000031 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/CE K. ERTAS AND L. LOCHMAN 
STATE FOR EUR/RA E. MCCONAHA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS:          
SUBJECT: SLOVAKIA GAS CRISIS UPDATE, JANUARY 15 
 
REF: A. BRATISLAVA 0008 
      B. BRATISLAVA 0013 
 
SUMMARY 
 
 1. (SBU) The Slovak government has quickly backed away from 
last week's announcement that it plans to re-start the 
recently closed nuclear reactor at Jaslovske Bohunice. 
Experts have told us there is virtually no need to restart 
the plant because of the gas crisis.  Gas reserves are 
reportedly adequate to last until the end of January. 
Yesterday's agreement to get 20 mcm/d of Ukrainian gas may be 
technically difficult because of the current configuration of 
the Ukrainian system to move reserves eastward from storage 
facilities near the western border.  End summary. 
 
BACK FROM THE NUCLEAR BRINK 
 
 2. (U) With the Russian gas cutoff now in its second week, 
the Fico government has backed away from its previous 
declarations that it would reconnect the V1 nuclear power 
plant at Jaslovske Bohunice, which it closed at the end of 
December in accordance with its EU accession agreement.  Both 
PM Robert Fico and his economy minister, Lubomir Jahnatek, 
have now positioned the Bohunice restart as a vague 
contingency in case the electrical grid is threatened by the 
gas crisis. 
 
 3. (SBU) Apart from the sharp criticism last week's 
announcement drew in Brussels and Vienna, independent experts 
here have questioned the need for more electrical capacity 
during the gas crisis.  One of the GoS's leading energy 
experts recently told us that the electrical system here uses 
gas for perhaps 10-12 percent of the total power generation 
at peak demand, mainly to stabilize the grid as loads vary. 
This stabilization could be accomplished with coal-fired 
power plants.  With large industrial users offline, normal 
peaks have flattened out and the overall load is low, so the 
stability of the system is quite high and should remain so. 
Adding to the argument against restarting Bohunice V1 is the 
limited availability of nuclear fuel: Slovakia reportedly has 
about 50 days of supply on hand.  Several experts have 
speculated that the main reasons to consider starting the 
plant were that it shows the government taking decisive 
action (albeit irrelevant), and that the GoS could use the 
revenue for its already stretched budget. 
 
RESERVES TO END OF JANUARY 
 
 4. (U) At the same time, the gas reserve situation has become 
somewhat clearer, though there is still a disparity between 
government statements and those of the gas utility. 
According to distribution monopoly SPP (which also runs the 
transit business through Slovakia), the country has reserves 
to last until roughly the end of January.  GoS statements 
have put reserves at anything from 8 to 12 days at the 
current emergency rate.  Earlier reports that the country's 2 
bcm reserves would last 70 days (ref A) turn out to be based 
on the assumption that there are imports to pressurize the 
system.  Without that pressure, the system cannot move most 
of the reserves through the system. 
 
UKRAINE, RUSSIA AGREE TO SWAP 
 
 5. (SBU) Fico's January 14 trip to Kyiv and Moscow landed an 
in-principle agreement for Ukraine to move 20 mcm/d to 
Slovakia from its western reserves, which would then be 
replenished from Russia.  Slovakia's normal daily consumption 
in cold weather is roughly 30 mcm/d, so this swap could 
theoretically allow industrial users to reopen (since a 
pressurized system would allow greater use of reserves). 
Experts have told us, however, that the arrangement would be 
technically difficult, since the Ukrainian system is now 
configured to move reserves from west to east.  Reconfiguring 
the flow to accept a relatively small volume from Russia 
could entail cutting off some domestic markets, which seems 
politically unlikely. 
 
OBSITNIK