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FM AMEMBASSY RANGOON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7361
INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1030
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 4578
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 8119
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RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1438
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000245 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO 
PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2018 
TAGS:        
SUBJECT: BURMA: REGIME CONTINUES PRE-REFERENDUM ARRESTS 
 
REF: RANGOON 234 
 
RANGOON 00000245  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) 
 
 1.  (C)  Summary: Authorities continue to arrest peaceful 
protesters and political activists.  Over the weekend, six 
participants in a March 27 "vote no" demonstration were 
arrested, as well as five Muslim leaders in Rakhine State. 
An NLD vice township chairman was beaten in an intimidation 
attack identical to last week's assault on Burmese Human 
Rights Activist Myint Aye.  The pro-democracy opposition 
remains disorganized in their response to the constitutional 
referendum and continue to wait for the NLD to take a public 
stand.  Ordinary Burmese are largely confused regarding the 
referendum and believe that, whatever the outcome, it will 
only benefit the regime.  A WFP source in Wa Territory 
informed us the Wa leadership has decided to support the 
draft constitution.  End summary. 
 
Arrests and Attacks Continue 
---------------------------- 
 
 2.  (SBU) The NLD confirmed to us that on March 29, 
authorities arrested six youth activists, including three NLD 
members.  The six participated in a "vote no" protest outside 
NLD headquarters on Armed Forces Day.  The regime has yet to 
acknowledge their arrest or provide any information on their 
whereabouts or condition. 
 
 3.  (SBU) Additionally, A Rakhine State Muslim contact 
informed us that five Muslim community leaders were arrested 
March 30 in Maungdaw, Rakhine State, while holding a meeting. 
 Media reports claimed ten leaders had been arrested during a 
meeting at the house of Maungdaw District Myanmar Muslim 
leader U Than Tun, and attributed the arrest as politically 
motivated. 
 
 4.  (SBU) Separately, a NLD Vice Township Chairman, U Myint 
Hlaing, was attacked from behind over the weekend and beaten 
with sticks.  The attack was identical to the assault against 
Human Right Defenders and Promoters leader U Myint Aye that 
occurred last week (reftel).  Activists cite this as further 
evidence that the regime will use violence to intimidate 
voters prior to the referendum. 
 
Opposition Disorganized, Ordinary People Confused 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
 5.  (C) During meetings this week with several political 
activists from NLD Youth, 88 Generation, and ethnic 
nationality groups, many expressed increasing disappointment 
with the NLD leadership for their continuing failure to take 
a clear stand on the upcoming constitutional referendum.  The 
NLD is undergoing bitter infighting, one NLD Youth member 
told us.  Former military members are fighting with the 
civilians within the party, and the NLD Youth are fighting 
with their elders, who they feel shut them out of political 
deliberations and are too hesitant to support political 
activists.  They express growing frustration about the lack 
of guidance from the NLD when the time remaining before the 
referendum is so short. 
 
 6.  (C) During several meetings over the past week with 
INGOs, local NGOs, and community and political activists, all 
indicated that only a handful of people actually understand 
the specifics of the draft constitution and the implication 
of the referendum.  Political activists are trying hard to 
spread the word, but their reach is limited and confined to 
quiet word-of-mouth effort.  Internet campaigns reach only a 
small urban minority.  Many advocated for more effective 
radio programming on the Burmese and ethnic language radio 
stations in order to reach the rural populations.  They 
specifically requested programming analyzing the pros and 
cons of the draft constitution to assist ordinary Burmese in 
making an informed decision on referendum day. 
 
 7.  (C) Many of our contacts believe most people will vote 
"no" because of their lack of confidence in and distaste of 
 
RANGOON 00000245  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
the regime.  At the same time, many Burmese fear that the 
military will somehow know how they will vote and retaliate 
against those who vote no.  Thus, no one will be surprised if 
the regime manipulates results to guarantee approval of its 
sham constitution. 
 
Wa Ready to Approve the Constitution 
------------------------------------ 
 
 8. (C) Ethnic Cease-fire groups will be key to the outcome of 
the referendum.  Spurned by the mostly-Burman pro-democracy 
movement, the support of the cease-fire groups has been key 
to the case the regime makes to its neighbors that it is the 
only institution capable of ensuring stability in Burma. 
Many of the cease-fire groups have not yet taken a public 
position on the referendum.  Although we receive reports that 
Kachins, Karens, and Mons will likely vote against. 
 
 9.  (C) According to the head of the WFP's field office in Wa 
Territory, a liaison officer from Nay Pyi Taw visited the Wa 
Central Committee last week with messages from Secretary 1 
Tin Aung Mying Oo and Intel Chief Ye Myint.  The SPDC leaders 
urged the Wa to allow the immigration teams in the region 
issuing temporary registration cards to resume their work, 
which the Wa had halted, and asked them to vote to approve 
the constitution.  They are the best armed of the cease-fire 
groups due to their narcotics trafficking, and have the most 
autonomy of the cease-fire groups.  Distinction from the rest 
of Shan State has always been one of their objectives. 
 
 10.  (C) After many rounds of meetings and discussions, the 
Wa leadership decided that the Wa should support the draft 
constitution because, for the first time, it will grant the 
Wa the status of a Self Administered Division.  Wa Chairman 
Bao, who was reluctant to endorse the decision, has 
reportedly agreed. 
 
Comment: 
-------- 
 
 11.  (C) Though no one likes the regime, and bitterness and 
anger from September remain, pro-democracy forces remain 
divided.  The voices advocating "vote no" have taken a 
scatter-shot approach, rather than uniting behind a common 
message.  Many look to Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD party to 
provide guidance, which it has yet to do.  Most of the 
population remains clueless about what the referendum or 
constitution means.  Absent effective leadership, and facing 
many obstacles in communicating widely, the committed 
activists recognize that the Than Shwe regime can easily 
ensure their sham constitution is approved.  However, no one 
will be fooled that either the referendum or the constitution 
reflects the will of the people.  End comment. 
VILLAROSA