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FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
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INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 2185
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 5340
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 9606
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 000419 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/S E. BROWN, S. HILL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2018 
TAGS:        
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWEAN EXILES NCUBE AND MASIYIWA UPBEAT ON 
DEVELOPMENTS, ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. PRETORIA 139 
 
      B. HARARE 130 
      C. PRETORIA 348 
 
PRETORIA 00000419  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Eric M. Bost.  Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
 1. (C) SUMMARY.  Prominent exiled Zimbabwean businessmen 
Trevor Ncube and Strive Masiyiwa agreed that the upcoming 
March 29 elections offered opportunities for political change 
in Zimbabwe, but differed on the electoral prospects for 
independent presidential candidate Simba Makoni.  Ncube, a 
strong Makoni supporter, claimed that Makoni has generated 
significant excitement in Zimbabwe and would do well in the 
upcoming poll, whereas Masiyiwa questioned Makoni's 
organizational strength on the ground.  Both believed that 
Makoni's candidacy has created sharp divisions in ZANU-PF, 
and that Makoni and Tsvangirai may still form a coalition 
before the election.  Some key ZANU-PF officials who were in 
involved in the rigging in previous elections now support 
Makoni, potentially making it harder -- but not impossible -- 
for Mugabe to steal the upcoming election.  The MDC will 
attempt to combat rigging, but has not yet devised a plan for 
the "day after" in the event of a Mugabe victory.  Masiyiwa 
expressed his growing concern about the spiraling inflation, 
suggesting that there may be "no more room" for the economy 
to collapse.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 2. (C) Visiting DAS Carol Thompson, AF/S Office Director, and 
PolOff met February 27 with prominent and influential 
Zimbabwean exile businessmen Strive Masiyiwa and Trevor 
Ncube.  Harare Ambassador McGee joined the meeting with 
Masiyiwa.  Ncube is publisher of the respected South African 
weekly newspaper the Mail & Guardian, as well as the 
Zimbabwean newspapers The Sunday Standard and The Zimbabwean 
Independent.  Masiyiwa is founder and CEO of Econet Wireless 
Group, a global telecommunications company with operations in 
Zimbabwe and 14 other countries. 
 
------------------------------ 
Prospects for Makoni Candidacy 
------------------------------ 
 
 3. (C) A long-time advocate of a "third way" in Zimbabwe (ref 
A), Trevor Ncube expressed his enthusiastic support for the 
presidential candidacy of Simba Makoni (ref B).  (NOTE: Ncube 
appears to be deeply involved in the Makoni campaign, and 
even received a phone call from Makoni during the meeting. 
END NOTE.)  Makoni has generated "tremendous excitement" on 
the ground in Zimbabwe, Ncube claimed, leading to an upsurge 
in voter registration.  Makoni's biggest enemies are time and 
resources.  Ncube said that the diaspora is helping to fund 
Makoni's campaign through a Johannesburg trust fund (Ncube 
offered to provide the account number to the USG for 
contributions, an offer we did not follow up on).  Ncube 
suggested that Makoni is making inroads in Mashonaland East, 
where former General Solomon Mujuru has broad support, in 
Harare, and in Matabeleland, both urban and rural areas. 
This support would spread into other areas, Ncube believes. 
 
 4. (C) DAS Thompson stressed to Ncube that the United States 
does not support particular political parties in Zimbabwe, 
despite rumors that the USG backs the opposition MDC. 
Instead, the United States wants to see leaders with vision, 
who can create political and economic change in Zimbabwe and 
a better life for the Zimbabwean people.  Ncube said he 
appreciated the message and would pass it to Makoni.  Ncube 
Qappreciated the message and would pass it to Makoni.  Ncube 
noted that any association between Makoni and the U.S. or 
U.K. would be the "political kiss of death," so urged the USG 
to speak carefully when commenting on the campaign. 
 
 5. (C) Strive Masiyiwa was much more cautious about the 
Makoni candidacy, questioning whether Makoni has support on 
the ground.  He noted that Makoni does not have any "foot 
soldiers" to campaign for him, and thus limited ability to 
communicate with the man on the street, many of whom are 
deeply suspicious of Makoni due to his long association with 
President Mugabe and ZANU-PF.  Both Masiyiwa and Ncube agreed 
that Makoni's candidacy has divided ZANU-PF, including the 
security structures.  While no one knows the exact extent of 
the division, Ncube said it is "extensive."  This division 
has created tension, distrust, and even paranoia within 
ZANU-PF. 
 
 
PRETORIA 00000419  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
--------------------------- 
Complicated Ties to Mujurus 
--------------------------- 
 
 6. (C) Ncube and Masiyiwa provided differing accounts of the 
relationship between Makoni and ZANU-PF heavyweight retired 
General Solomon Mujuru.  Ncube claimed that Makoni decided to 
run for president without Mujuru's blessing.  Now that Makoni 
is "gathering momentum," Mujuru has begun quietly supporting 
him, but many core Makoni supporters resent Mujuru's late 
conversion.  Mujuru is a controversial figure in ZANU-PF and 
could even become a negative factor in the Makoni campaign. 
 
 7. (C) Masiyiwa, on the other hand, said that Mujuru and 
former Home Affairs Minister Dumisa Dabengwa created the 
"Makoni project" as a means to get rid of Mugabe.  Dabengwa 
will publicly endorse Makoni in the coming days, which will 
be "symbolically powerful" and will bring the former ZAPU 
leadership firmly behind Makoni.  Masiyiwa helped organize a 
meeting in Johannesburg between Dabengwa and MDC leader 
Morgan Tsvangirai (ref C), a potentially important bridge 
between Makoni and the MDC.  According to Masiyiwa, Mujuru 
will never publicly back Makoni.  Mujuru is essentially a 
"mafia boss," and Mugabe could simply threaten to arrest 
Mujuru if he got out of line.  Masiyiwa also questioned the 
conventional wisdom that Mujuru controls much of the 
military, noting that Mujuru has been out of uniform for some 
16 years and may not have as much influence as experts 
believe. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Alliance between Tsvangirai and Makoni? 
--------------------------------------- 
 
 8. (C) Both Ncube and Masiyiwa believed it was still possible 
for Simba Makoni and Morgan Tsvangirai to form an alliance 
before the presidential elections on March 29 -- or perhaps 
for a second round of elections if no one candidate receives 
50 percent plus of the vote (a prospect both Ncube and 
Masiyiwa thought likely).  Ncube, a harsh Tsvangirai critic, 
argued that the MDC-Tsvangirai has been "seriously weakened" 
by its failure to reunite with the MDC-Mutambara faction, and 
that Tsvangirai has no more than 20 percent support in the 
country.  Tsvangirai is under significant pressure, even 
"rebellion," from within his own party.  Masiyiwa said that 
both Makoni and Tsvangirai are still sizing up their support, 
but at the appropriate time in the next couple weeks, he 
expected -- and would in fact help ensure -- that the two 
would meet and discuss forming a coalition.  Masiyiwa floated 
the idea of Makoni serving as Prime Minister and head of 
government, while Tsvangirai would become president and head 
of state. 
 
---------------- 
Rigged Election? 
---------------- 
 
 9. (C) Asked about the possibility that Mugabe would rig the 
election to ensure he received 51 percent of the vote, Ncube 
and Masiyiwa noted that the "people who did the rigging last 
time" are now divided between Mugabe and Makoni (Masiyiwa 
even joked that one CIO contact expressed concern that Makoni 
could steal the election from Mugabe!).  Ncube said you 
cannot rule out the impact of fear and intimidation from 
Mugabe's thugs, but that there were "competing forces at 
work."  Blatant rigging might not be accepted by the young 
people, Ncube observed, noting that many youth were 
frustrated when they were unable to register to vote. 
Qfrustrated when they were unable to register to vote. 
Masiyiwa is helping the MDC set up an "anti-rigging unit" 
that hopefully will help reduce the amount of electoral theft. 
 
 10. (C) The MDC does not have a clear plan for the "day 
after" the election, Masiyiwa said.  The party is beginning 
to hold those discussions, but remains committed to 
non-violence.  Tsvangirai is concerned that post-electoral 
protests could spin out of control.  Masiyiwa has recommended 
to the MDC that they view the election as part of the process 
of de-legitimizing Mugabe -- shrinking his international 
support base to a couple countries in the region like Namibia 
and Angola.  Masiyiwa wants as many regional observers and 
journalists as possible in Zimbabwe to witness the election. 
He and others are urging the South African Communist Party 
(SACP) and trade union federation COSATU -- both sympathetic 
 
PRETORIA 00000419  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
to the MDC -- to send observers through the ANC and South 
African Government delegations. 
 
--------------- 
Economic Crisis 
--------------- 
 
 11. (C) Concluding, Masiyiwa expressed concern about 
spiraling inflation and economic meltdown in Zimbabwe. 
Mugabe is continuing to print and spend money in advance of 
the election, creating a "roaring monster."  "We have talked 
about the economy" for a long time, Masiyiwa said, but this 
time there "may be no more room" for collapse. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
 12. (C) Simba Makoni's presidential bid has created 
excitement among the well-educated Zimbabwean diaspora in 
South Africa.  Many, like Trevor Ncube, are supporting Makoni 
and are likely contributing resources to his campaign.  A 
significant number of the elite and successful Zimbabweans 
dismiss Morgan Tsvangirai as ineffective, uneducated and 
incapable of ruling Zimbabwe, and see Makoni as the best hope 
for change in Zimbabwe.  Others, like Strive Masiyiwa, 
continue to back the MDC and Tsvangirai, and Tsvangirai 
retains strong support among the working class and poor 
Zimbabwean exiles in South Africa.  We expect few Zimbabweans 
living in South Africa, estimated between one to three 
million, will return to Zimbabwe to vote in the March 29 
elections, although their financial resources, international 
connections, and ties to family members may make them an 
influential factor in Zimbabwean politics. 
BOST