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RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 001832 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/S (MARBURG), AF/RSA, H (AMACDERMOTT) 
DEPT PLEASE PASS TO HILL STAFFERS RKING, P-AMARSH, DBERAKA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2017 
TAGS:              
SUBJECT: CODEL BERMAN MEETS ZIMBABWEAN OPPOSITION IN SOUTH 
AFRICA 
 
REF: A. CODEL AND PAHAD 
      B. CODEL WRAP-UP 
 
PRETORIA 00001832  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: A/DCM Donald Schenck for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
This is the third of three cables reporting on CODEL Berman's 
July 1-6, 2008 visit to South Africa. 
 
 1.  (C) Summary: CODEL Berman met in Johannesburg on July 3 
exile members of the Zimbabwean opposition Movement for 
Democratic Change.  They were told that: the June 27 run off 
was a farce; Mugabe's presidential claim was illegitimate; 
and a Transitional Authority -- not a Government of National 
Unity -- was needed to prepare the way out of the crisis via 
new elections within the next 18 months.  They decried the 
"political culture" in Africa which allowed a loser who was 
prone to violence to negotiate a power-sharing arrangement. 
They expressed a complete lack of faith in South Africa's 
mediation effort, and the AU and the Southern African 
Development Community to solve this crisis.  They invested a 
modest hope that the UN Security Council could do more. 
"What we need," one said, is "pressure from the USA and the 
international community" to insist that the outcome of new 
elections in Zimbabwe "reflects the will of the people."  End 
Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
Masiyiwa Hosts CODEL and Opposition MDC Insiders 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
 2.  (C) CODEL Berman was hosted on July 3 in the upscale 
Johannesburg gated suburb of Dainfern by Strive Masiyiwa, a 
wealthy Zimbabwean businessman who has lived in South Africa 
for years, and who has been a major player in opposition 
initiatives against President Robert Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF 
party.  Masiyiwa invited members of the opposition Movement 
for Democratic Change (MDC) to engage the CODEL and discuss 
the post-June 27 runoff election crisis environment.  The 
participants included among the Zimbabweans: Masiyiwa 
(Advisor to MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai) M. Thokozani 
Khupe (MDC Vice President), Roy Bennett (MDC Treasurer once 
elected to Parliament and later jailed by the GOZ), George 
Sibotshiwe (Senior Aide and Campaign Manager to Tsvangirai), 
and Wellington Chadehumbe (Zimbabwean businessman and MDC 
Policy Advisor).  U.S. participants included: House Foreign 
Affairs Committee Chairman Howard Berman (D-CA), George 
Miller (D-CA), Ed Royce (R-CA), Thomas Davis (R-VA), Jim 
Costa (D-CA), Donald Payne (D-NJ), Linda Sanchez (D-CA); 
their staff, PolCouns (Note Taker), and EconCouns (Control 
Officer).  This meeting took place following a briefing by 
the SAG DepForMin Aziz Pahad (septel) who conveyed to the 
CODEL the SAG's official policy and characterization of the 
situation in Zimbabwe. 
 
------------------------------ 
A Litany of Woe and Injustice 
------------------------------ 
 
 3.  (C) Masiyiwa introduced his guests, and set the stage by 
stating the opposition's view that: the June 27 election was 
a farce; that Mugabe's claim to executive authority was 
illegitimate; and the way forward to resolve the crisis 
required a Transitional Authority (TA) -- not a Government of 
National Unity (GNU) -- with the MDC in the majority as 
QNational Unity (GNU) -- with the MDC in the majority as 
reflected in the March 29 elections and the ZANU-PF (without 
Mugabe) in the minority.  This TA would have a single 
purpose: to set the stage for new elections in the future 
that would reflect the will of the people.  He lamented the 
implicit recognition of the African Union (AU) Summit in 
Sharm el-Sheik that allowed Mugabe's participation as Head of 
State, and suggested that if Zambian President Mwanamasa had 
not been medically evacuated with a stroke, he would have led 
an anti-Mugabe initiative at that summit along with 
Botswana's President Seretse Khama (who did not attend 
either).  In the absence of these critical voices, and the 
lack of electoral and democratic credentials of too many 
other African heads of state, Mugabe was able to take 
Zimbabwe's seat, and with the help of South Africa's 
President Thabo Mbeki, was able to divert the AU from taking 
a strong stand on the crisis.  He told the CODEL that prior 
 
PRETORIA 00001832  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
to their arrival, he received a call from the Zimbabwean 
capital reporting that 200 refugees were at that moment 
appealing to the U.S. Embassy in Harare for sanctuary, while 
300 asylum seekers were also at the South African Embassy. 
 
----------------------- 
Power, Fear and Poverty 
----------------------- 
 
 4.  (C) Ms. Khupe detailed the repression and violence 
visited upon opponents of the ZANU-PF for the past twenty 
five years.  She emphasized the massacre of over 20 thousand 
ZAPU supporters in the mid-1980s, the impact of the economic 
crisis on the people throughout the 1990s with an 
incomprehensible 2 million percent inflation rate today, the 
intensity of the violent response of the ZANU-PF around 
elections since 2000, and the inhumanity and desperation that 
drove the most recent campaign of state-sponsored violence 
prior to and beyond the June 27 "non-election election" run 
off.  In a climate of raw power, fear and poverty, she said, 
this campaign was driven with a "heartless" determination in 
a climate of "war against the Zimbabwean people."  Two 
hundred thousand people were displaced, over 200 homes 
destroyed, 86 people were known dead, but she feared the 
total was much higher.  She criticized the AU for conferring 
a fig leaf of legitimacy on Mugabe and decried the "political 
culture" in Africa which allowed "a negotiation for power 
sharing if you lose an election and threaten violence."   She 
stressed that a Transitional Authority was needed in Zimbabwe 
to prepare for free and fair elections.  "Mugabe must 
resign," she declared, "Tsvangirai must head the TA, and 
violence must cease." 
 
---------------------- 
Genesis of Catastrophe 
---------------------- 
 
 5.  (C) Roy Bennett -- a white Zimbabwean, once coffee farmer 
and former MP -- said the genesis of the catastrophe that was 
unfolding in Zimbabwe was a conflict of values and 
principals.  The ZANU-PF's claim to a right to rule rested on 
its role in the liberation struggle, and this claim was not 
based on democratic principles.  Mugabe and his key 
supporters hungered for the power and luxury that came from 
Zimbabwe's resources and held Zimbabweans for ransom, as a 
sacrifice to their avarice.  He expressed a complete lack of 
faith in the AU or the Southern African Development Community 
(SADC) to solve this crisis and hoped the UN Security Council 
could do more. 
 
 6.  (C) George Sibotshiwe, as MDC Campaign Director, 
described the difficulties the opposition faced in their 
campaign.  He said Mugabe and the ZANU-PF were shocked and 
surprised at the MDC electoral win on March and immediately 
set out to make sure they did not lose the run off.  The 
security forces, supplemented by civilian thugs and 
torturers, led the campaign of violence and intimidation. 
Their campaign advance man was kidnapped, tortured and 
murdered, and they were unable to organize mass rallies. 
They then changed their campaign strategy from mass rallies 
to a campaign caravan.  Roadblocks were then established all 
around the country that hindered the movement of the caravans 
and undermined their ability to campaign.  He explained that 
Qand undermined their ability to campaign.  He explained that 
he and his colleagues (some of whom were tortured and others 
murdered) had to flee Zimbabwe to South Africa and other 
neighboring countries.  He told a harrowing story about how 
he escaped out the back of a house he was hiding in as GOZ 
security officers were literally at the front door.  He 
stressed that the environment for the election was perverted 
such that the MDC had to withdraw in order to save its 
supporters from further harm.  "What we need," he said, is 
"pressure from the USA and the international community" to 
insist that the outcome of new elections in Zimbabwe 
"reflects the will of the people." 
 
 7.  (C) Businessman Wellington Chadehumbe called for a 
"strong, robust position in the UNSC" that recognizes, 
promotes and supports democracy.  He added that a resolution 
of the crisis called for "broadening the context of 
mediation" to include UN support for the AU working within 
 
PRETORIA 00001832  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
SADC enhancing South Africa's intervention.  These 
"co-negotiators" would be a strategy to "weaken South 
Africa's grip" on the mediation effort.  Additionally, there 
was a need to "change the debate" from arguing the bogus 
outcome of the June 27 farce in favor of the principle of 
"the will of the people." 
 
-------------------------- 
The MDC's Favored Solution 
-------------------------- 
 
 8.  (C) The Zimbabwean opposition interlocutors reiterated 
their position that a TA, not a GNU, is the way forward.  The 
MDC would not participate in a GNU in which they were a 
"junior partner."  The TA would only need six months -- but 
they would accept 12 - 18 months -- to level the playing 
field for new elections.  This strategy would be based on 
"clear timelines" with "disincentives" at the end.  In 
response to questions from the Codel, they confirmed that 
they did not trust South Africa to help them and that they 
had lost confidence in President Mbeki as a mediator.  They 
understood that the media blitz characterizing the AU and 
SADC effort as a breakthrough in negotiations for a GNU, 
though false, were becoming the revealed truth as conveyed by 
the international media.  When asked what their plan was to 
counter this trend, they emphasized their lack of access and 
resources that constrained their activities.  Bennett and 
Masiyiwa directly pitched the Codel for funding of the MDC, 
and Chairman Berman offered to push for a five million dollar 
supplemental appropriation for promoting democracy in 
Zimbabwe. 
 
------------------------------ 
Comment: Leaning into the Wind 
------------------------------ 
 
 9.  (C) The MDC is in an unenviable position and they know 
it.  They do not expect much help coming from SADC, 
especially with South Africa acting under its mandate, 
Mwanamasa incapacitated, and Swaziland's monarchy, the DR 
Congo's chaos, and Angola's non-elected government lacking 
the credibility to call the June 27 election illegitimate. 
They do not trust in the AU's willingness and ability to come 
to their aid, considering the many member states whose 
governments are in power by non-democratic means.  They 
understand their call for an AU peacekeeping force to be 
deployed to Zimbabwe in advance of new elections is unlikely. 
 They fear (correctly) that the UNSC will be hamstrung from 
taking a strong stance as Russia and China could veto any 
resolution to further pressure Mugabe.  Nevertheless, they 
have been in this game for many years and show no inclination 
to quit now.  Their request for U.S. funding is not, in our 
view, a shallow effort, and any response on our part should 
be handled discretely.  The forces of history and the 
multilateral system have not yet come to the rescue of the 
Zimbabwean opposition and may not do so in the foreseeable 
future.  Nevertheless, they are committed to their dream of a 
new Zimbabwe that has been rehabilitated from its pariah 
status, and in which the skills and experience of the 
Zimbabwean Diaspora can be applied to reversing the downward 
trends since independence. 
BOST