VZCZCXRO9917
PP RUEHBW RUEHPOD
DE RUEHPOD #0132 1071721
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 161721Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0761
INFO RUEHPS/AMEMBASSY PRISTINA PRIORITY 0095
RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY 0346
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 0023
RUEHTI/AMEMBASSY TIRANA PRIORITY 0108
RUEHVJ/AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO PRIORITY 0079
RUEHSQ/AMEMBASSY SKOPJE PRIORITY 0030
RUEHTH/AMEMBASSY ATHENS PRIORITY 0005
RUEHVB/AMEMBASSY ZAGREB PRIORITY 0149
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 0842 UNCLAS PODGORICA 000132 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS:          
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO WILL NOT RECOGNIZE KOSOVO BEFORE SERBIAN 
ELECTIONS 
 
REF: PODGORICA 87 
 
 1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:   Montenegro will not recognize Kosovo before 
Serbia's May 11 elections in order to avoid strengthening the 
nationalist vote in Serbia.  Both Kosovo PM Thaci and former PM 
Ceku have told FM Rocen (protect) and Montenegrin PM Djukanovic 
(protect), respectively, that they understand and support the 
GOM position, according to Rocen.   Rocen acknowledged that he 
and his Macedonian counterpart had compared notes on recognition 
plans, but stopped short of saying the two governments are 
coordinating moves.  Rocen did not speculate as to when 
Montenegro might recognize, but said that a nationalist victory 
in Serbia would make it easier to take such a step.   END SUMMARY 
 
 
 
 2.  (SBU) FM Rocen (protect) told the Ambassador 4/15 that the 
GOM will not recognize Kosovo before Serbia's May 11 elections 
-- in order not to strengthen Serbia's nationalist vote on 
election day, according to the FM.  He said that he had 
discussed this recently with Kosovo PM Thaci and claimed that 
the latter understood and supported the Montenegrin decision. 
Rocen added PM Djukanovic had also received the same reaction 
from Ceku during a recent telephone call placed by the former 
Kosovo PM. 
 
 
 
 3.  (SBU) Rocen said he had twice compared notes with the 
Macedonian FM about recognition plans.  According to Rocen, the 
Macedonian FM had said that Skopje did not plan on waiting for 
its own elections in June before recognizing.   Asked whether or 
not the two countries planned to coordinate announcements of 
recognition, Rocen said there was no formal agreement to do so. 
 
 
 
 
 4.  (SBU) Rocen would not speculate about when Montenegro might 
recognize Kosovo, but repeated the GOM assertion that it planned 
to align its position with its Euroatlantic partners.  He opined 
that a nationalist victory in Serbia's elections would make it 
easier for Montenegro to recognize Kosovo, but he repeated an 
observation made earlier to us by the PM that the GOM did not 
fear a Radical victory (reftel).  As the PM had told us earlier 
as well, Serbian Radical Party deputy leader Toma Nikolic had 
sent signals to the GOM that Montenegro would have no cause to 
worry in the event the SRS came to power in Belgrade.  Rocen 
also played down the prospect of a parliamentary debate on 
Kosovo, something for which the opposition has been calling.  He 
said the GoM was not afraid of such a discussion, but that only 
the Government would determine if or when to bring the matter to 
parliament. 
 
 
 
 5.  (SBU) The FM added that Serbian FM Jeremic had told him that 
Serbia's policy was to minimize the number of countries that 
recognize Kosovo with the intention of demanding (perhaps around 
the September UNGA) that the matter of Kosovo's independence be 
referred to the ICJ for review. 
 
 
 
 6.  (SBU) Rocen also made the point of telling the Ambassador 
that the PM and he would be traveling to Moscow next week, but 
would not be seeking meetings "at the highest level."  The main 
reason for the visit, he said, was to be present at the opening 
of the first Montenegrin bank ever to be opened abroad (note:  a 
bank at least partially owned by Montenegrin oligarch Dusko 
Knezevic.) 
 
MOORE