VZCZCXRO9765
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHGO #0060/01 0170925
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 170925Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY RANGOON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5601
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0109
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 4434
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 3693
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 7207
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 4785
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL CALCUTTA 1014
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 1013
RUDKIA/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 0804
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 3001
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0664 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000060 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2017 
TAGS:        
SUBJECT: BURMA'S LEADER KEEPING UP APPEARANCES 
 
REF: A. RANGOON 22 
      B. RANGOON 7 
      C. SINGAPORE 70 
 
RANGOON 00000060  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: Poloff Dean Tidwell for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
 1. (C) SUMMARY: Senior General Than Shwe returned to Burma on 
January 12 from his hospital stay in Singapore.  He appeared 
briefly in the Burmese media on January 15 and 16, chairing 
the quarterly SPDC meeting in Nay Pyi Taw and welcoming PM 
Soe Win back from the ASEAN Summit in Cebu.  Although rumors 
of his death were premature, rumors abound in Burma that he 
faces life-threatening health problems.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 2. (C) After missing Burmese Independence Day to make an 
unannounced trip to Singapore on December 31 (ref B) for what 
the Burmese Embassy in Singapore described as a "routine 
medical check up," Senior General Than Shwe returned to Burma 
on January 12.  He traveled back to Burma via the chartered 
plane used to transport Prime Minister Soe Win to see him in 
Singapore en route to the ASEAN meeting and East Asian Summit 
in the Philippines. 
 
 3. (C) The SPDC held its regular quarterly meeting, postponed 
from January 8, on January 15 in Nay Pyi Taw.  Regime-run 
television briefly showed Than Shwe chairing the meeting on 
its January 15 evening news, although it is highly unusual 
for the regime to publicize or televise its quarterly SPDC 
meetings while in session.  The SPDC officials seen on 
television appeared unusually tense.  The January 16 evening 
news also featured Than Shwe, welcoming Soe Win back from the 
ASEAN meeting.  The extra media coverage may be designed to 
dispel rumors that Than Shwe had died or was seriously 
incapacitated and to convince military rank-and-file that he 
was still fit to lead.  Embassy sources also reported rumors 
that Than Shwe would not participate in the quarterly 
meetings until their conclusion, but instead would go to a 
beach resort this week to recuperate. 
 
 4. (C) Multiple Embassy sources report increased security 
around the country during Than Shwe's absence abroad.  Local 
media sources observed that, during Than Shwe's absence, the 
regime mouthpiece daily, "The New Light of Myanmar," carried 
fewer reports than usual about SPDC and cabinet members' 
travels around the country as key leaders kept a low profile. 
 Embassy personnel also observed increased police checkpoints 
around Rangoon at night. 
 
 5. (C) The Rangoon-based correspondent for AFP (PROTECT) told 
us that Than Shwe's health remains precarious due to 
congestive heart failure, and reported that his doctors urged 
him to remain in Singapore to rest.  Than Shwe was, she said, 
afraid to be away too long, lest his rivals seize the 
opportunity to oust him.  She corroborated earlier 
information (ref B) that Than Shwe knows his health is 
failing and wants Vice Senior General Maung Aye to retire 
together with him, but that Maung Aye will not agree.  Than 
Shwe reportedly fears Maung Aye would purge the military of 
Than Shwe's cronies and place Than Shwe and family under 
house arrest, as Than Shwe did to former dictator Ne Win's 
family.  The AFP correspondent believes if Than Shwe does not 
retire at this current SPDC meeting, he may be kept on as 
titular head of state but would no longer play an active role 
in day-to-day affairs. 
 
 6. (C) Emboff heard a separate rumor from Dr. Thaung Han 
(PROTECT), a Rangoon-based doctor turned businessman.  He 
claimed that doctors in Singapore discovered that Than Shwe 
was riddled with abdominal cancer and was beyond effective 
treatment. 
 
 7. (C) COMMENT: It is clear that a serious health problem 
prompted Than Shwe's unexpected hospital visit, but no one 
 
RANGOON 00000060  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
can confirm whether he suffers from "nothing serious," 
congestive heart failure, a stroke, or advanced cancer. 
Everyone will be watching his appearances more closely to 
gauge the state of his health in the expectation that a 
change of rulers approaches.  END COMMENT. 
VILLAROSA