VZCZCXRO8679
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHGO #1057/01 2980509
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 250509Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY RANGOON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6739
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0635
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 4173
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 7725
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 5285
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 1159
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1071
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001057 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO 
PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2017 
TAGS:        
SUBJECT: MEMBER LACKS CONFIDENCE IN CONSTITUTION COMMISSION 
 
RANGOON 00001057  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) 
 
 1. (C) Summary.  Tun Aung Chain, a member of the Commission 
for Drafting the State Constitution, told us he harbors 
little hope that the process will lead to meaningful 
democracy in Burma.  He explained that while the commission 
consists of 54 members representing various ethnic groups and 
professions, only the top three members have any real 
influence over the constitution.  He has been informed that 
the commission will convene in the second or third week of 
November for what could be several months and predicted the 
referendum would take place in October 2008.  End Summary. 
 
Drafting the Constitution 
-------------------------- 
 
 2.  (C) On October 24 Poloff met with Tun Aung Chain, a 
member of the newly formed Commission for Drafting the State 
Constitution.  He said that he learned of his membership only 
by reading his name in an article published in the regime's 
mouthpiece daily, The New Light of Myanmar, which listed the 
delegates.  He claimed the regime had not consulted in 
advance regarding their intention to name him to the 
committee.  He knows and has worked with a number of the 
other members and guessed that many of them learned the same 
way, although he has not yet spoken with them directly.  On 
October 24, Dr. Thaung Nyunt, the organizer of the meetings 
on the constitution, called him to tell him that the 
commission would convene in the second or third week of 
November and that the meetings would last a few months.  Tun 
Aung Chain described the commission as powerless to make 
changes or promote healthy democracy.  He expects to be given 
a pre-drafted constitution, and the commission's job will 
simply be to "translate it into legalese." 
 
 3.  (C) Tun Aung Chain said that the only people on the list 
of commission members with any real power in the drafting 
process are 84-year-old chairmand and Supreme Court Justice U 
Aung Toe, U Aye Maung, the vice-chairman of the 
Attorney-General's office, and U Thaung Nyunt a legal advisor 
of the Attorney-General whose office is drafting the 
constitution.  These three men also had significant power 
during the National Convention when drafting the guiding 
principles for the constitution.  He said other members of 
the commission represented a wide range of academics, legal 
professionals, and ethnic minorities, but would have almost 
no real drafting power and no leeway to change the "basic 
principles" decided on at the National Convention.  He 
explained that the diverse make-up of the committee was 
designed to show the international community that the 
constitution drafting process is inclusive of all interests, 
but described the members - other than the powerful trio - as 
mere "window dressing." 
 
Referendum Expected in 2008 
--------------------------- 
 
 3. (C) Tun Aung Chain predicted the national referendum on 
the constitution would take place after the rainy season next 
year in October 2008, although he has received no official 
word about this.  He believed the government feels pressure 
from the international community to carry out its Roadmap to 
Democracy and would therefore push the constitution drafting 
process and the referendum through.  Tun Aung Chain had 
little faith the regime would allow any more free and fair 
debate on the merits of the new constitution than it did in 
the closed and manipulated National Convention process. 
 
 4. (C) When asked how he thought the people would receive the 
new constitution, he said that it is already too late for the 
government or the Roadmap to have much legitimacy among the 
public.  If they had pushed for the same measure ten years 
ago when the economy was better and the 1990 election was 
fresh in people's minds, there might have been a better 
chance of gaining popular support, he speculated.  While he 
could not say how the government planned to get 50 percent of 
the electorate to vote in favor of the draft constitution, he 
guessed they would use any means necessary to do so.  He 
 
RANGOON 00001057  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
elaborated that the vote could only be legitimate if the 
ballot were secret, something he doubted the government would 
allow. 
 
Little Hope for Real Democracy 
------------------------------ 
 
 5. (C) Tun Aung Chain doubted that the new constitution would 
lead to real democracy in Burma because the military would be 
allowed to hold 25 percent of the seats in any future 
parliament.  He allowed that somewhere in the future, Burma 
might have a healthy democracy based on this constitution, 
but only after significant revisions which could take years 
to accomplish.  The current process, he emphasized, does not 
constitute a genuine effort to create democracy. 
 
 6. (C) Comment.  Tun Aung Chain is the first member of the 
Commission for Drafting the State Constitution that we have 
met since the announcement of its formation on October 19. 
His complete lack of confidence in the process further 
reinforces our view that the Roadmap is a sham designed to 
perpetuate military rule in Burma.  Than Shwe continues to 
insist he is moving Burma toward democracy, while excluding 
anyone who might disagree with him.  In his determination to 
move forward with his plan, he seems to be betting that his 
neighbors will go along, as they were willing to do until the 
September protests.  We should emphasize to China, India, and 
ASEAN members that the Roadmap has lost all credibility and 
only a more inclusive dialogue among all the key political 
players will get Burma back on track to political stability. 
End comment. 
VILLAROSA