VZCZCXRO5077
RR RUEHDE RUEHMR RUEHRN RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHSA #0520/01 0431623
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 121623Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8159
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 3946
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000520 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2017 
TAGS:        
SUBJECT: MBEKI EXPRESSES SUPPORT FOR AU IN SOMALIA, BUT NO 
ACTION 
 
REF: PRETORIA 300 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Teitelbaum. 
Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
 1. (C) SUMMARY.  Though President Mbeki said February 9 that 
South Africa will "respond appropriately" to the AU request 
for assistance in Somalia, we believe the SAG remains 
skeptical about the AU operation and is content to sit back 
and watch the situation evolve.  However, a specific request 
for assistance from a regional leader, like Ethiopian PM 
Meles, would be difficult for President Mbeki to refuse.  The 
SAG will not reconsider its refusal to deploy ground troops 
in Somalia, but might be willing to play other roles, such as 
training or equipping peacekeepers from a third country 
deploying to Somalia (like Mozambique or Burundi), providing 
officers for the AU headquarters element, supporting 
reconciliation efforts, or training TFG security forces. END 
SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------ 
SAG Acknowledges Call for Help 
------------------------------ 
 
 2. (U) President Mbeki said in his February 9 State of the 
Nation address that South Africa "will respond appropriately" 
to the African Union call for assistance in Somalia.  (NOTE: 
On January 25, DefMin Lekota said that South Africa will not 
send troops to Somalia (reftel).  END NOTE.)  Mbeki stressed 
the importance of reconciliation efforts, which "ensure that 
the protagonists within Somalia interact with one another to 
find a solution that is inclusive and practicable, based on 
the need to achieve national reconciliation." 
 
 3. (U) The President's comments follow those of DepForMin 
Aziz Pahad, who said February 5 that South Africa is "looking 
at alternative ways" to assist in Somalia.  He stressed that 
South Africa will only become involved when requested by the 
appropriate regional organization, in this case the 
InterGovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).  Pahad 
also said that the AU Summit "viewed the holding of a 
national reconciliation process as a requirement to restore 
peace, security, and stability." 
 
-------------------------------- 
Peace Talks Should Be in Somalia 
-------------------------------- 
 
 4. (C) In response to rumors that South Africa might host 
Somali reconciliation talks, DepForMin Aziz Pahad told the 
Norwegian ForMin the week of February 7 that the SAG wants 
any negotiations to be held inside Somalia.  In a February 12 
conversation with PolCounselor, a Pretoria-based Norwegian 
diplomat said Pahad told his ForMin that he would publicly 
announce the SAG position on the venue for the Somali talks 
(although Pahad has not done so yet). 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
ANC Insider Skeptical; Says Regional Request Key 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
 5. (SBU) University of South Africa (UNISA) Professor and ANC 
insider Iqbal Jhazbhay told PolOff February 7 that South 
African officials are skeptical about the AU mission in 
Somalia.  South Africa is looking to guidance from the IGAD 
regional leaders.  Jhazbhay noted that Prime Minister Meles 
and President Mbeki have a good relationship, and that the 
Mbeki would likely consider any requests from Meles 
favorably.  (NOTE:  As a long-time member of the African 
National Congress (ANC) and academic expert on the Horn of 
Africa, Jhazbhay is well-informed and influential on SAG 
Somali policy.  END NOTE.) 
 
 6. (SBU) Jhazbhay expressed his personal opinion that the AU 
mission in Somalia was unlikely to succeed.  He believes the 
AU force will be viewed as partisan supporters of the Darod 
clan and will become embroiled in clan warfare.  While South 
African troops are certainly stretched thin (the reason 
DefMin Lekota said the SAG could not contribute troops), 
Jhazbhay believes that Lekota's decision reflected his view 
that peacekeepers will be killed in Somalia.  The lack of a 
strong regional anchor -- like Nigeria in Liberia and South 
Africa in Burundi -- is another weakness of the AU operation. 
 
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PRETORIA 00000520  002 OF 002 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
 7. (C) While President Mbeki continues to express his public 
support for the AU Somali mission, we believe there is 
considerable skepticism among SAG/ANC policymakers about the 
operation.  At this point, the SAG is content to sit back and 
watch the situation evolve.  That said, it would be difficult 
for Mbeki to refuse a request for a specific contribution to 
the AU mission, especially if it came from a regional leader, 
like PM Meles.  This could include training or equipping 
peacekeepers from a third country deploying to Somalia (like 
Mozambique or Burundi), providing officers for the AU 
headquarters element, involvement in reconciliation efforts, 
or training for TFG security forces (as the SAG did in 
Burundi and DRC). 
BOST