VZCZCXRO2963
RR RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSA #4109/01 3381009
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 041009Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2873
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 004109 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF C. THOMPSON, AF/S S. HILL 
NSC FOR B. LEO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2017 
TAGS:          
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI FRUSTRATED BY LACK OF PROGRESS IN SADC 
TALKS 
 
REF: HARARE 1028 
 
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Don Teitelbaum.  Reasons 1.4(b) 
and (d). 
 
 1. (C) SUMMARY.  The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) is 
increasingly frustrated by the slow pace of the 
SADC-sponsored Zimbabwe talks, MDC President Morgan 
Tsvangirai told visiting U.S. Ambassador to Zimbabwe.  The 
 
SIPDIS 
MDC has made significant concessions, but received nothing in 
return from ZANU-PF.  Tsvangirai wrote to South African 
President Mbeki threatening to pull out of the SADC talks 
unless ZANU-PF takes "concrete" steps to demonstrate their 
goodwill, such as ending the political violence and allowing 
the MDC to hold rallies around the country.  Tsvangirai also 
said he understood the importance of MDC unity, and would be 
reaching out to the other MDC faction in the coming week with 
the goal of reuniting the party.  The MDC threat to pull out 
of the SADC process puts the South Africans in an awkward 
spot, since they need the opposition to participate in the 
2008 elections to legitimize the SADC facilitation process. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
 2. (C) At a December 01 lunch in Johannesburg, Movement for 
Democratic Change (MDC) President Morgan Tsvangirai discussed 
recent political developments with newly-accredited U.S. 
Ambassador to Zimbabwe James McGee.  MDC Treasurer Roy 
Bennett and U.S.-based MDC advisor Melinda Farris joined the 
lunch, as well as PolCounselor and PolOff (notetaker). 
Tsvangirai warmly greeted Ambassador McGee and said he looked 
 
SIPDIS 
forward to close and frequent communication.  This was the 
first meeting between Ambassador and Tsvangirai, who was in 
Johannesburg for a week-long MDC strategic retreat. 
 
--------------------------- 
Disillusioned by SADC Talks 
--------------------------- 
 
 3. (C) Striking a much more pessimistic tone since his last 
meeting with U.S. officials on November 15 (ref A), 
Tsvangirai expressed his growing frustration with the South 
 
SIPDIS 
African-led SADC facilitation talks.  The MDC has 
consistently shown its good faith, including agreeing to 
controversial Amendment 18, but ZANU-PF has not made any 
"reciprocal" concessions.  Most recently, the two parties 
presented the South Africans with their respective written 
outlines for a political agreement (copies given to 
Ambassador).  According to Tsvangirai, the ZANU-PF paper was 
not serious.  It read like an ideological rant, with no 
effort to address the core negotiating issues. 
 
 4. (C) Following receipt of the ZANU-PF paper, Tsvangirai 
wrote to President Mbeki to say that the MDC would be forced 
to suspend their participation in the SADC talks unless 
ZANU-PF provided some "concrete sign" of their commitment to 
the facilitation process.  Tsvangirai asked for a response by 
December 4, prior to the December 5 MDC executive meeting in 
Harare.  Asked by Ambassador what the MDC would consider a 
positive sign from ZANU-PF, Tsvangirai mentioned as examples: 
 
-- ending the state-sponsored violence against MDC officials; 
-- allowing the MDC to hold rallies in all parts of the 
country; 
-- permitting truly independent newspapers to be printed; and 
-- agreeing to the distribution of food based on need, not 
political affiliation. 
 
Tsvangirai also noted the MDC's concerns with the ongoing 
 
SIPDIS 
voter registration (which is only taking place in ZANU-PF 
strongholds) and the lack of transparency and fairness in the 
delimitation process. 
 
 5. (C) Tsvangirai met directly with President Mbeki two weeks 
ago to outline his concerns about the SADC process, and again 
Qago to outline his concerns about the SADC process, and again 
with South African lead negotiator Minister for Local and 
Provincial Government Sydney Mufamadi on December 1st. 
Mufamadi agreed with many of Tsvangirai's complaints, and 
assured Tsvangirai that President Mbeki raised these same 
points during his meeting with President Mugabe in Harare on 
November 22 (although Mufamadi provided no details of 
Mugabe's response).  Mufamadi also agreed with Tsvangirai 
that it would be difficult to hold free and fair elections in 
March 2008, given the number of reforms that had to be 
implemented before then. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Understand Challenge of Party Financing 
 
PRETORIA 00004109  002 OF 002 
 
 
--------------------------------------- 
 
 6. (C) Despite the MDC's ongoing concerns about the prospects 
for free and fair elections, Treasurer Bennett said the party 
has put together a comprehensive plan for contesting and 
financing the elections.  Without specifying a specific 
dollar amount (Note: Bennett has previously floated a figure 
of USD 10 million (ref B)), Bennett and Tsvangirai suggested 
several general areas that required financial support:  the 
presidential campaign, party activities (including voter 
education and mobilization), logistics, and fraud detection 
and prevention programs.  Bennett suggested that the 
Institute for a Democratic Alternative for Zimbabwe (IDAZIM), 
a new South Africa-based non-governmental organization 
(septel), may be useful vehicle for funding MDC-coordinated 
electoral programs. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Recognize Importance of MDC Unity 
--------------------------------- 
 
 7. (C) On the internal MDC divisions, Tsvangirai said he 
recognized the importance of the MDC presenting a unified 
front.  Tsvangirai's goal is for the MDC to present a unified 
slate of candidates at all levels, from President to Member 
of Parliament.  He does not want a coalition, but rather a 
unified party leading up to the elections.  Over the next 
week, Tsvangirai plans to reach out to MDC faction leader 
Arthur Mutambara and others to bring them back in the fold. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
 8. (C) The MDC's threat to pull out of the SADC facilitation 
puts the South Africans in an awkward spot.  Mbeki needs the 
MDC to participate in the 2008 elections -- even if the SAG 
wants/expects them to lose -- to pursue their agenda of 
"normalizing" the political and economic situation in 
Zimbabwe.  The South Africans continue to believe that 
legitimizing a ZANU-PF government through elections where the 
results are "uncontested" will accelerate Mugabe's retirement 
and put in place a "reformed" ZANU-PF regime -- which Post 
believes has always been Mbeki's ultimate endgame in Zimbabwe. 
 
 9. (C) Mbeki also wants to show progress in Zimbabwe prior to 
the December 8-9 EU summit in Lisbon, and perhaps even more 
importantly, before the December 16-20 ANC presidential 
elections.  A Zimbabwe "victory" might have some limited 
positive political benefit for Mbeki, but a breakdown of the 
SADC facilitation would provide ammunition to rival Jacob 
Zuma in a very tight race.  As we suggested when the SADC 
process began some eight months ago (ref C), Mugabe has 
skillfully outplayed Mbeki over the years.  With Mbeki in 
trouble politically at home, Mugabe may be waiting to see how 
the ANC elections play out before making his next move. 
 
 10. (U) This cable has been cleared by Ambassador McGee. 
BOST