VZCZCXRO2426
RR RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSA #2370/01 1841403
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 031403Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0639
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 4571
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 002370 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2017 
TAGS:    
SUBJECT: ANC POLICY CONFERENCE LEAVES DOOR SLIGHTLY AJAR 
FOR MBEKI 
 
REF: PRETORIA 2294 
 
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Teitelbaum.  Reasons 1.4( 
b) and (d). 
 
 1. (C) SUMMARY.  The ANC Policy Conference ended on 30 June 
exactly as it started, with ANC members bitterly divided over 
who the party's next president will be.  The unresolved 
succession debate overshadowed the conference, disappointing 
those who hoped it would reveal any changes to the party's 
ideology or a clear signal regarding the future leadership. 
Both Mbeki and Zuma camps celebrated the party's vaguely 
worded recommendation that "the ANC President should 
preferably be the ANC candidate for the President of the 
Republic...but that this should not be made a principle."  In 
essence, the recommendation is a compromise and only serves 
to highlight that Zuma continues to have mass appeal at the 
grassroots level, while Mbeki largely has control over party 
structures.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------------- 
CONFERENCE OVERSHADOWED BY SUCCESSION 
------------------------------------- 
 
 2. (C) The 27-30 June ANC Policy Conference was, as expected, 
overshadowed by the succession debate, but more specifically, 
whether Mbeki should be allowed to run again as ANC 
President.  (NOTE: The South African Constitution prohibits 
Mbeki from running for a third term as South African 
President, but the ANC Constitution has no term limits on the 
party's presidency.  END NOTE)  The ANC Youth League (ANCYL), 
backed by KwaZulu-Natal and Free State Provinces, rejected 
the notion that Mbeki should be able to run again, even 
though the ANC Constitution does not proscribe term limits. 
Eastern Cape and NorthWest Provinces, along with cabinet 
ministers Essop Pahad, Thoko Didiza, and Sydney Mufamadi, 
openly backed the third term option.  In the end, Secretary 
General's Kgalema Motlanthe's suggestion that "the ANC 
President should preferably be the ANC candidate for the 
President of the Republic...but that this should not be made 
a principle," was accepted.  Political analyst Sabelo 
Ndlangisa, who attended the conference, told PolOff on 30 
June that both Zuma and Mbeki camps were rightfully 
celebrating.  Zuma supporters believe the recommendation 
clearly supports their argument that rests on a traditional 
pattern of practice; where as Mbeki's supporters believe that 
it supports a traditional principle that has just never been 
tested. 
 
 3. (C) Mbeki publicly responded to the proposal by repeating 
the party's mantra that if the party chooses him, he will 
serve another term as ANC President.  He also added that he 
will respect the party's decision if it decides its interests 
would be better served by someone else.  Zuma, on the other 
hand, told delegates that the "status quo" -- the ANC 
President should become the President of the Republic -- 
should be followed.  Both camps will now go back to their 
branches to garner support for their interpretation of this 
compromise formula and their candidates, who still appear to 
be either Zuma or Mbeki.  The formal nomination process for 
the top six leadership positions will begin in September and 
be determined by December. 
 
LIMITED DEBATE AROUND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS... 
 
 4. (C) Few policy recommendations achieved consensus, with 
much of the actual policy debate either being subsumed by the 
succession debate or kicked down the road for further 
discussion.  Ndlangisa confided that he was surprised at how 
unremarkable discussions were around economic and social 
policies, given the fact that many of the left's demands were 
not met.  For example, it was decided that: 
 
     -- industrial and macroeconomic policy will remain more 
or less intact, though the leadership acknowledged the 
  need for a more "developmental state;" 
     -- more debate is needed on the viability of instituting 
and paying for free education; 
     -- basic income grants (welfare payments) can be 
extended for 14-18 year old head of households, but further 
expansion needs more debate; 
     -- all grants should be tied to some form of work to 
prevent developing a culture of dependency; and 
     -- foreign land ownership should be regulated but not 
prohibited; and that 
     -- monopoly "capital" should not be declared the "enemy 
of the people." 
 
 
PRETORIA 00002370  002 OF 002 
 
 
 5. (C) On political issues, parliamentary "floor crossing" 
will remain as will the current number of provinces, again 
with more debate needed.  Delegates were not able to come to 
a conclusion on the size of the National Executive Committee, 
but did agree to a 50/50 gender parity and the "idea of a 
generational mix."  The ANCYL unsuccessfully tried to argue 
that a 50/50 gender parity was "tokenism," even as they 
argued for the generational mix.  The few recommendations to 
make it out of the conference included strengthening the 
secretary general's office, retaining the role of the ANC 
 
SIPDIS 
presidency as the "political head" of the organization, and 
establishing a women's ministry, a national pharmaceutical 
company, and a political school/think tank. 
 
EXCEPT AROUND PRESIDENTIAL POWERS 
 
 6. (C) Delegates, however, sent a clear message to Mbeki 
about his appointment authority by recommending that Mbeki's 
powers to appoint premiers and mayors should be devolved from 
the Presidency to the ANC constitutional structures.  This is 
most likely in response to many ANC members belief that the 
leadership has distanced itself from the rank and file while 
too much power is being concentrated in the hands of the 
state President.  Recommendations state that in the future, 
the president must consult the NEC when he appoints or 
reshuffles his cabinet.  Provincial Executive Committees 
(PECs), which until now have had no say in appointments, will 
be empowered to make recommendations for premier, but the NEC 
would make the final decision.  Regional Economic Committees 
(REC) would also make recommendations on mayoral positions, 
with the PEC having final say.  These recommendations further 
blur the line between the Party and the State. 
 
COMMENT 
 
 7. (C) Though the resolution on succession is being sold as a 
pragmatic compromise, it simply defers the issue to the ANC 
national conference in December when the next ANC leader is 
chosen.  In the meantime, the battle between Mbeki and Zuma 
is only going to intensify.  However, with potential 
corruption charges still looming over Zuma and strong 
anti-Mbeki sentiment on the ground, a compromise candidate 
could still emerge, resulting in a race that remains too 
uncertain to call. 
Bost