VZCZCXRO5680
RR RUEHMR
DE RUEHSA #2545/01 1720653
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 210653Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4106
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 2981
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 002545 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/21/2016 
TAGS:      
SUBJECT: THE MECHANICS OF SELECTING THE NEXT ANC PRESIDENT 
 
REF: PRETORIA 2122 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Don Teitelbaum 
Reason 1.4 (b) 
 
 1.  (C) Summary: The question of who will be elected the next 
president of the ruling African National Congress (and almost 
certainly national President in 2009) is one that has been 
hotly debated, from township shebeens to the op-ed pages, 
since Jacob Zuma was fired as Deputy President one year ago. 
Despite the intense speculation, the selection of the party's 
next president and top leadership is not scheduled to take 
place for another 18 months.  This message covers the 
mechanics of the succession process.  Subsequent messages 
will address potential candidates and political developments 
as the process unfolds.  Reftel addressed ANC rivalries and 
factions and their implications for the succession process. 
Much of the process, such as the selection of delegates and 
ranking of party lists, is seemingly mundane, but in reality 
may prove far more contentious than any ANC national 
conference since the end of apartheid.  End summary. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
THE MECHANICS OF ANC PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
 2.  (C) Barring a change of date driven by ANC infighting 
(reftel), the ruling African National Congress is likely to 
choose its leadership through 2012 at its December 2007 
national conference.  The conference location has not yet 
been announced, but is rumored to be Polokwane in Limpopo 
province.  At this conference, the party will elect its new 
president, who is expected to become the ANC's candidate in 
the 2009 national elections and almost certainly South 
Africa's next President.  (Note: While there are no term 
limits for the ANC president, there is a constitutional 
two-term limit for the national President.  Mbeki has 
categorically ruled out a constitutional amendment to 
overturn the national term limit, therefore if he wins a 
third term as ANC president, succession to South Africa's 
presidency will remain up in the air after 2007.  End note) 
The ANC national conference also will elect the party's 
deputy president, secretary general, deputy secretary 
general, chairperson, and treasurer, as well as its 60-person 
National Executive Committee. 
 
 3.  (C) The runup to the 2007 national conference will begin 
later this year, according to ANC elections researcher and IV 
nominee Wande Makalima.  (Bio note: Makalima is the son of 
Mlungisi Makalima, South Africa's Ambassador to Zimbabwe and 
former Ambassador to Argentina.)  Makalima noted that the 
first step will be provincial policy conferences, likely to 
be held in the second half of 2006.  At these conferences, 
provincial ANC structures will examine the policy decisions 
made at the 2002 Mafikeng national conference, review 
progress made toward those aims, and debate new policy 
recommendations.  After these are completed, the ANC will 
hold a national policy conference in either late 2006 or 
early 2007 that will lay out policy recommendations to be 
debated at the December national conference. 
 
 4.  (C) Once the national policy conference is completed, 
provincial ANC structures will meet again to decide on their 
nominees for the national party leadership, as well their 
delegates to the national conference.  Approximately 2,000 
delegates will attend the 2007 conference, with 
representation proportional by the number of party branches 
in the province.  Ninety percent of delegates will be elected 
by the branches, while 10 percent will come from the party's 
youth and women's leagues.  As for candidate lists, Makalima 
noted that in 2002 the candidate lists were largely similar 
at the top half, with Mbeki ranked first on every provincial 
list but that of Free State, where he was fourth. 
 
 5.  (C) After the provincial lists are compiled, they will be 
sent to a special ANC veterans' committee, that will review 
the eligibility of the various candidates (generally a 
formality), allow them to accept or decline (nearly all 
accept), and then compile a final list shortly before the 
conference begins.  The process becomes interesting as 
individuals make their final decisions over whether to seek a 
leadership position.  There are separate ballots for the top 
six leadership positions and for the 60-person NEC, and 
candidates are not permitted to run for more than one 
position simultaneously.  An individual who shoots for a 
leadership job and loses will not be a part of the 
decisionmaking NEC.  The last battle for a leadership 
position came at the 1997 conference in Mafikeng, where 
current Defense Minister Mosiuoa Lekota defeated Mbeki 
loyalist Steve Tshwete for the position of party chairperson, 
 
PRETORIA 00002545  002 OF 002 
 
 
which hamstrung Tshwete's influence within the party until 
his 2002 death.  In part because party leaders feared losing 
influence if they lost a leadership bid, none of the top six 
positions was contested in 2002. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
REAL BATTLES WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE SCENES 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
 6.  (C) While the mechanics of leadership and NEC selection 
are seemingly straightforward, the selection process will 
depend more on behind-the-scenes maneuvering and 
electioneering than popular participation, according to 
political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi.  The various camps 
(loosely comprising supporters of Mbeki, supporters of Zuma, 
and those seeking a "middle-ground" option") will battle it 
out in the provinces over the candidate lists and chosen 
delegates.  Matshiqi expects it will be some time before we 
see indications of the directions those battles will take. 
The true compositions of ANC "factions" are still very 
unclear and their ideological positions ill-formed. 
 
 7.  (C) What is clear, Matshiqi noted, is that there is 
likely to be a significant shakeup within the party 
leadership.  First of all, candidate lists are highly 
unlikely to be as uniform as in 1997 or 2002.  Jacob Zuma, 
for example, appears to be a lock to finish at or near the 
top of the KwaZulu-Natal list, but he is unlikely to do as 
well elsewhere.  Other provincial favorite sons (or 
daughters) could command significant local support, such as 
party chairperson (and former premier) Mosiuoa Lekota in Free 
State or former premier Matthews Phosa in Mpumalanga.  Unless 
party factions can hammer out their differences in advance, 
many of the top six leadership positions could prove 
contentious.  If the differences are not resolved, Jacob Zuma 
is unlikely to continue as deputy president, while Lekota and 
secretary general Kgalema Motlanthe could find themselves 
 
SIPDIS 
completely shut out if they unsucessfully seek the 
presidency. 
 
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COMMENT 
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 8.  (C) It is far to early to say how the battles for control 
of the ANC will play out, although it is clear that most of 
the machinations will take place outside of the public eye. 
The provincial party conferences will bear close watching, as 
their results (both in terms of candidate lists and delegate 
selection) will have direct bearing on the national 
conference results.  Makalima said that diplomatic 
delegations probably would be invited to at least some 
portions of these provincial conferences.  Mission will 
follow up on this to ensure maximum coverage of party 
developments. 
TEITELBAUM