VZCZCXRO1246
PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHTH #0371/01 0401127
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 091127Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY ATHENS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4326
INFO RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY 0593
RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA PRIORITY 0252
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ATHENS 000371 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
EUR/SE, EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2016 
TAGS:    
SUBJECT: GREECE/KOSOVO: SERB PRESIDENT VISITS ATHENS, LOOKS 
TO GOG FOR SUPPORT 
 
 
Classified By: AMB. CHARLES P. RIES FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D) 
 
 1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  On February 6 the Greek MFA gave read-outs 
to EU and Contact Group embassies of recent, separate visits 
to Athens of Serb President Tadic and Serb-Montenegrin 
President Marovic, who both came to attend the Socialist 
International meeting last week.  Kosovo dominated the 
discussions, with Tadic predictably rejecting any form of 
independence, but also rejecting EU "carrots" to make Serbia 
more flexible in final status negotiations.  Any incentives 
for Serbia, Tadic told the Greeks, should deal directly with 
the final status of Kosovo.  Tadic said he favored early 
elections before UN Special Rep on Status Talks Ahtisaari 
completes his mission, saying this would keep democratic 
forces in power and give them a renewed mandate to negotiate. 
 Other topics dealt with catching PIFWC Mladic -- Marovic 
claimed the GoS is doing all it can -- and the upcoming 
Montenegrin referendum.  On the latter, Marovic said his 
proposal to require 55 percent of all votes cast to approve 
represented a compromise and had been accepted by EU Envoy 
Lajcak.  Tadic also gave a January 31 talk at a prominent 
Greek foundation and underscored that Greece, the "leader and 
capital of the Balkans," is in a unique position to help 
solve Kosovo and bring stability to the region.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 2.  (U)  On January 29-February 2, Serb President Boris Tadic 
visited Athens, where he met with separately with President 
Papoulias, PM Karmanalis and FM Molyviatis.  On February 6 
MFA Balkans Director Michalis Christidis provided EU and 
Contact Group heads of mission the following read-out on this 
visit and the January 31-February 2 visit of Serb-Montenegrin 
President Marovic (both Tadic and Marovic attended the 
meeting in Athens of the Socialist International, which 
elected opposition PASOK leader George Papandreou President 
of the SI). 
 
Kosovo 
------ 
 
 3.  (C)  This was the most important issue discussed.  Tadic 
reiterated GoS opposition to any form of independence for 
Kosovo, saying this would bring about a mass exodus of Serbs 
from Kosovo and would mean the establishment of a greater, 
monoethnic Albania or Kosovo.  Tadic pressed the idea of 
decentralization, which he said should involve a distinct 
entity with majority Serb municipalities having horizontal 
links with one another and institutional links with Belgrade. 
 This entity, which would not need to be territorially 
linked, would decide on matters of justice, police, 
education, religion and other matters.  "Everything short of 
independence and a UN seat," Tadic told his Greek 
interlocutors would be given to the K-Albanians. 
 
 4.  (C)  Tadic rejected EU "carrots" to make Serbia more 
flexible and argued that any incentives should deal with the 
future status of Kosovo, not Serbia's EU perspective. 
Regarding the latter, Tadic said that there is "no real 
essence" to this perspective for the Serb public, and that it 
is very difficult for the GoS to explain leaving Kosovo in 
return for this.  Direct incentives involve real 
decentralization, the Serb President concluded. 
 
 5.  (C)  Addressing the Kosovo issue in terms of the internal 
situation in Serbia, Tadic stated that if the notion of 
having lost the province prevails, then the desire to 
continue reforms will also be lost.  To keep the momentum 
going, Tadic said he favored holding early elections before 
UN Special Rep Ahtisaari's mission is concluded.  In that 
way, democratic forces in the country have a "good chance" to 
form a coalition and have a "renewed mandate" to conduct 
status negotiations.  The Serb President feared that radical, 
pro-Milosevic politicians would take power if the elections 
were held after Ahtisaari's mission.  Tadic noted that Serb 
PM Kostunica does not agree with this rationale, saying that 
the PM is "dreaming" that his standing will improve in the 
wake of the mission.  Tadic added that this was the only 
point of dissent on Kosovo that he has with Kostunica. 
 
 6.  (C)  On a positive note, Tadic said he had a short 
discussion with Kosovar Albanian leader Hashim Thaci on the 
margins of the Socialist International meeting and both 
agreed that direct contacts between Belgrade and Kosovar 
Albanians would be useful. 
 
Cooperation with ICTY - Mladic 
------------------------------ 
 
 
ATHENS 00000371  002 OF 003 
 
 
 7.  (C)  Tadic did not discuss the Mladic case at any length, 
but complained that it's wrong to draw parallels between 
recently captured PIFWC and Croatian national Ante Gotovina 
and Mladic.  He claimed that the Gotovina is "still a 
national hero" in Croatia, whereas Mladic is an "enemy" of 
the political leadership in Belgrade.  At a February 6 lunch 
with poloff, Serbian Embassy political counselor Vujicic 
maintained that the Croatian government knew where Gotovina 
was all along, but that the GoS "has no idea" where Mladic 
is. 
 
 8.  (C)  For his part, Marovic told the Greeks that up until 
2002 "some military units" had helped Mladic hide, but 
claimed that there was no cooperation after that time. 
Marovic discussed a recent meeting of the GoS Higher Council 
of Defense that decided to more effectively coordinate 
efforts and take actions, such as monitoring the phone calls 
of Mladic's family.  Marovic attempted to paint a picture of 
Serbia going out of its way to cooperate with the ICTY and 
said it would be "fatal for his country" if a decision was 
made by the EU to break off negotiations with SaM on a 
Stabilization and Association Agreement because of the issue. 
 
 
Montenegrin Referendum 
---------------------- 
 
 9. (C)  Tadic stated that he was ready to accept any result 
that was supported by 50 percent   1 of registered voters in 
Montenegro.  That said, he was against the dissolution of the 
union and any further division of the Balkans because this 
would "create instability." 
 
 10.  (C)  On a related note, Christidis said that 
Serb-Montenegrin President Marovic, visiting Athens February 
2-3, indicated that the only remaining issue was agreement on 
the qualifying majority needed for referendum passage. 
Pro-union supporters want at least 50 percent of total 
registered voters to approve, while pro-independence 
supporters favor only 40 percent (agreement has been reached 
on the need for at least 50 percent of all registered voters 
to take part).  Marovic said he had proposed 55 percent of 
all votes cast and that this formula had been accepted by EU 
Envoy Lajcak.  If the two sides cannot agree, Marovic argued, 
then Brussels should intervene and resolve the matter. 
 
Foundation Talk 
--------------- 
 
 11.  (U)  Tadic reiterated many of the same points in a 
speaking engagement organized by the well-regarded Kokkalis 
Foundation on January 31.  He stressed the link between 
Serbian stability and Balkans stability and directly asked 
Greece for support during the strengthening of Serbia's 
political process.  On Kosovo, Tadic emphasized that he does 
not back an independent Kosovo as a practical solution to the 
Kosovo question.  This would lead to destabilization in the 
Balkans since Kosovo is "not in line with international law 
or justice."  Tadic stressed that a Kosovo solution can be 
found if both sides see the situation realistically and are 
"willing to give something up."  Tadic called for a process 
of democratization in which minority Serbs would retain 
control of their institutions and links to the Serbian State 
as "the only way to preserve our national historic 
heritage... which is a part of the Greek heritage."  Tadic 
criticized the decision to bar him from Rugova's funeral, 
asking "If the President of Serbia is not welcome at the 
funeral of the president of Kosovo, how can we hope for a 
future of more wide-ranging co-existence?" 
 
 12.  (U)  Tadic described the three axes of Serbia,s foreign 
policy as the EU, the U.S., and Russia. Each of these axes, 
Tadic explained, has specific importance and Serbia needs 
their support to become more stable and to achieve its goal 
of becoming an EU member.  Tadic laid out his plan to solve 
Serbia's outstanding political problems in 2006, and set up 
conditions for increased investment in 2007 which will lead 
to an EU membership in 2012 and NATO membership after that. 
 
 13.  (U)  On relations with Greece, Tadic said that Greece 
could use its unique position as "leader in the region" to 
continue to boost development in his country.  He highlighted 
the more than one billion euros Greece has already invested 
in Serbia and noted that Serbia could continue to benefit 
from Greece,s support on many levels, specifically 
sponsorship for Serbia's EU membership bid, continued support 
for Euroatlantic integration, and infrastructure and 
technology investment. 
 
ATHENS 00000371  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
 14.  (U)  On relations with the U.S., Tadic said development 
in Serbia requires continued strengthening of its defense 
sector, so U.S. cooperation is vital.  He noted the 
importance of U.S. support promoting increased security, 
stability, values, and technology.  Tadic noted that Serbia 
lost its role as a leader in defense after the Balkans wars, 
but it hopes to eventually participate in an international 
peacekeeping force such as NATO after finalizing reform in 
the defense sector.  He concluded his speech saying he has 
"so many friends" in the U.S. 
 
 15.  (C)  COMMENT:  The visit of President Tadic is important 
in that it reveals how desperately Serbia is seeking friends, 
especially "traditional" ones like Greece, in the run-up to 
the painful decisions that will have to be made on Kosovo. 
Tadic went out of his way to portray Greece as "the leader 
and capital" of the Balkans and key to stability in the 
region -- words that the GoG likes to hear.  Greece does have 
a role to play in Kosovo, but, as we have told the Greeks, 
not on a high-policy level.  The GoG's forte is in providing 
the economic assistance and trade/investment needed to 
buttress the post-status negotiations environment in Kosovo 
and the region. 
RIES